基本面未有明显改善，宏观与地缘仍是重要关注

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In February, supported by the macro - level and geopolitical factors, the cost side will boost the polyolefin market, which is likely to run strongly [6][41]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - level China - In December 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of broad money M2 was 8.5%, 0.5 percentage points higher than the previous month. In January 2026, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.3%, 0.8 percentage points lower than the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity [7]. - In December 2025, the national consumer price increased by 0.8% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month. The ex - factory price of industrial producers decreased by 1.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month, and increased by 0.2% month - on - month [9]. - In 2025, the national real estate development investment was 827.88 billion yuan, a 17.2% decrease from the previous year. The sales area of new commercial housing was 881.01 million square meters, a decrease of 8.7%. The sales volume of new commercial housing was 839.37 billion yuan, a 12.6% decrease. The funds available to real estate development enterprises were 931.17 billion yuan, a 13.4% decrease. The real estate development climate index was 91.45 [11][12]. - The overall economic recovery momentum is not strong. Although CPI and PPI improved in December 2025, real estate data continued to decline, and the manufacturing PMI in January 2026 fell below the 50% boom - bust line, indicating a weak economic recovery [14]. International - In December, the US CPI remained flat at 2.7% compared to the previous month. In the Eurozone, the CPI in December 2025 decreased by 0.2% to 1.9% compared to the previous month, facing greater economic recession pressure with lower inflation. Currently, inflation in both the US and the Eurozone has dropped to a relatively low level, which is conducive to further interest rate cuts to boost the economy [15]. - On January 29, the Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate range at 3.50% - 3.75%, which was in line with market expectations. Fed Chairman Powell said that inflation is still high, mainly due to the increase in commodity - sector inflation driven by tariffs. If tariff - related inflation peaks and then falls, the Fed may relax its policy. The US is likely to continue the interest - rate cut cycle in the future. The Eurozone benchmark interest rate remains at 2.15% [17][19]. - High tariffs and high interest rates still have a certain negative impact on the US economy. The US manufacturing PMI in December decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 47.9% compared to the previous month. The employment indicator improved last month, with the unemployment rate in December decreasing by 0.1% to 4.4% [20]. - The domestic real estate recovery is still difficult and requires further policy support. Domestic policies are likely to remain loose, and policies to boost the economy will continue to be introduced. In the US, the impact of tariffs on inflation is expected to decrease, and the demand to boost the economy will persist. The US is likely to continue to cut interest rates. Therefore, both the domestic and international macro - levels may improve [22]. Fundamental PE - In January, polyethylene supply increased. The capacity utilization rate was 83.94%, 0.38 percentage points higher than the previous period, and the output was 3.0594 million tons, a 1.68% increase. The increase in output was mainly due to the new production of a 300,000 - ton/year new device and a 30.23% decrease in maintenance losses [23]. - In January, polyethylene downstream demand declined slightly. The overall downstream industry starting rate was 39.86%, a 2.02% decrease from the previous month. The demand for northern greenhouse films basically ended, with the starting rate decreasing by 8.08% month - on - month. The follow - up of long - term agreement orders for packaging films was limited, and the continuity of customized orders was average, with a 3.04% month - on - month decrease [25]. - In January, the social inventory of polyethylene increased. At the end of January, the social sample warehouse inventory was 479,600 tons, a 45,000 - ton increase from the previous month and a 39,000 - ton increase year - on - year. The cost and news boosted the market sentiment, downstream factories increased inventory replenishment, and trading among traders increased. Production enterprises actively sold to reduce inventory before the Spring Festival, resulting in a decrease in production enterprise inventory and a slight increase in social sample warehouse inventory [28]. - In January, the supply - demand situation of polyethylene was still weak, with supply increasing and demand decreasing. However, due to the boost from the macro - level and cost side, the polyethylene price ran strongly [30]. PP - In January, PP supply decreased. The total output of polypropylene in China was 3.4474 million tons, a 110,500 - ton decrease from December 2025, a 3.11% decrease. Temporary maintenance of production enterprises due to cost and unexpected reasons increased, and there was no new capacity put into production, resulting in a significant decline in output [31]. - In January, PP downstream demand decreased. The apparent consumption of polypropylene in January was estimated to be 3.4774 million tons, a 4.01% decrease from the previous month. The starting rates of BOPP and modified PP increased by 0.69% and 1.59% respectively, mainly due to the increase in express packaging demand during the year - end New Year goods season and the impact of new - energy vehicle subsidy policies on modified demand. However, the starting rates of most general - purpose products decreased due to insufficient follow - up of new orders [33]. - In January, the inventories of polypropylene production enterprises and traders both decreased. At the end of January, the inventory of production enterprises was 400,900 tons, a 24.83% decrease from the end of the previous month. Traders' inventory was 183,400 tons, a 2.02% decrease from the end of the previous month. In January, the supply - demand of polypropylene decreased, and the oversupply situation remained unchanged. However, due to the geopolitical boost, the prices of crude oil and propylene strengthened, which in turn boosted the PP price to run strongly [38]. Market Outlook PE - In February, there will be no new domestic polyethylene production enterprises. The output and imports are expected to decrease by 196,400 tons and 79,000 tons respectively, with a total supply decrease of 275,400 tons. Due to the impact of the Spring Festival holiday, the demand is expected to decrease by 389,300 tons. The demand enters the off - season, and the supply - demand gap continues to widen. Polyethylene will be in a situation of oversupply for most of the next three months. However, due to the boost from the macro - level and cost side, polyethylene is likely to still run strongly [39][41]. PP - In February, polypropylene enters the traditional off - season of demand, and the oversupply situation continues with inventory accumulation further intensifying the supply - demand contradiction. However, the macro - level policy is continuously favorable, and the cost side, especially the strong propane import cost, makes the polypropylene market regain the enthusiasm for price increase. Polypropylene may still run strongly [41].