甲醇周报：供需依旧偏弱，但甲醇或偏强运行-20260202

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, methanol futures showed a relatively strong performance, with the methanol weighted closing at 2322 yuan/ton on Friday afternoon, up 1.04% from the previous week. The current supply - demand fundamentals of methanol remain weak, but it may be supported by the macro - level and geopolitical tensions. Future methanol trends need to closely follow the guidance of the macro - level, geopolitics, and crude oil. It is suggested to consider selling put options or using a bull spread strategy [6][9][10] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Methanol Trend Review - Futures: Last week, boosted by the relatively strong port methanol, methanol futures showed a relatively strong performance. The methanol weighted closed at 2322 yuan/ton on Friday afternoon, up 1.04% from the previous week. - Spot: Import apparent demand was weak last week. Port methanol inventory accumulated slightly at a high level, and the market tradable volume was high with an upper limit. Affected by the unstable international situation and positive macro - level, the market fluctuated and trended stronger. The price in Jiangsu ranged from 2240 - 2330 yuan/ton, and in Guangdong from 2220 - 2290 yuan/ton. Inland methanol prices continued to decline, with enterprises focusing on reducing inventory by lowering prices before the festival. The price in the Ordos northern line in the main production area ranged from 1785 - 1805 yuan/ton, and the receiving price in Dongying ranged from 2100 - 2130 yuan/ton [14] 2. Methanol Fundamental Analysis - Production: Last week (20260123 - 0129), China's methanol production was 2,037,735 tons, an increase of 28,820 tons from the previous week. The device capacity utilization rate was 91.21%, a month - on - month increase of 1.43% [15] - Downstream Demand: - Olefins: The average weekly operating rate of MTO devices in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions decreased to 30.48%, a decrease of 13.90 percentage points from the previous week. - Dimethyl Ether: The capacity utilization rate was 5.92%, a month - on - month increase of 12.76%. - Glacial Acetic Acid: The overall capacity utilization rate increased. - Chlorides: The operating rate of methane chlorides was 76.04%, with an increase in overall production and capacity utilization rate. - Formaldehyde: The operating rate was 33.32%, with a decrease in overall capacity utilization rate [18][20] - Inventory: - Sample enterprises: As of January 28, 2026, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 424,100 tons, a decrease of 14,200 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 3.24%. The order backlog of sample enterprises was 265,700 tons, an increase of 27,400 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 11.50%. - Ports: As of January 28, 2026, the inventory of Chinese methanol port samples was 1,472,100 tons, an increase of 14,600 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 1.00%. The inventory accumulation mainly occurred in the East China region [21][25] - Profit: Coal - to - methanol profit improved slightly but still showed an overall loss. The week - average profit of coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia in the northwest was - 266.10 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.00%. The average profit of coal - to - methanol in Shandong was - 158.10 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 10.58%. The average profit of coal - to - methanol in Shanxi was - 226.30 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 10.71%. The week - average profit of coke - oven gas - to - methanol in Hebei was 61.00 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 16.00%. The week - average profit of natural gas - to - methanol in the southwest was - 290.00 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 9.02% [27] 3. Methanol Trend Outlook - Supply: This week, the number of restarted domestic methanol devices may be more than that of overhauled ones. It is expected that China's methanol production will be about 2.0771 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate will be about 92.98%, an increase from last week. - Downstream Demand: - Olefins: The operating rate of the MTO industry will increase slightly. - Dimethyl Ether: The Xinxiang Xinlianxin device is expected to stop production, and the overall capacity utilization rate may decrease. - Glacial Acetic Acid: The capacity utilization rate is expected to increase slightly. - Formaldehyde: The capacity utilization rate is expected to decrease. - Chlorides: The domestic methane chloride capacity utilization rate may continue to rise. - Inventory: - Sample enterprises: The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is expected to be 401,600 tons, continuing to decline. - Ports: The port methanol inventory is expected to decrease [30][31][33]