碳酸锂：区间震荡企稳，聚焦供需紧平衡，成材：重心下移偏弱运行

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The lithium carbonate market is expected to stabilize in a range, with a focus on the tight supply - demand balance [1][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Performance - Last week, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures showed a volatile downward trend, closing at the daily limit of 148,200 yuan/ton. The net short position of the main funds continued, the持仓 structure was divided, market divergence increased, the advantage of long - positions concentrated towards the top, and overall gaming intensified. Registered warehouse receipts increased by 420 tons to 30,211 tons. The SMM average price of electric carbon was 160,500 yuan/ton. Upstream lithium salt producers' willingness to sell single orders continued to weaken, while some downstream material factories had a strong willingness to purchase at relatively low prices, and market inquiries and transactions were active [1] Fundamentals - Supply: Last week, the raw material market generally rose. The SMM total weekly operating rate of lithium carbonate was 49.5% (-1.49%), and the operating rates of all processes except for salt lakes decreased. The SMM total output was 21,569 tons (-648 tons), a month - on - month decrease of 2.92% [2] - Demand: There was a significant structural differentiation in demand. Last week, the SMM lithium iron phosphate output increased by 1.0% month - on - month with increased inventory accumulation; the ternary output decreased by 1.1% month - on - month with gradually decreasing inventory. The output of power cells decreased slightly last week. As of January 18, the penetration rate of new energy vehicle sales by SMM rose to 55.6%. Energy - storage cells performed strongly, with both production and sales booming and low inventory [2] - Inventory: Last week, the SMM four - location sample social inventory decreased by 5.6% (-2,450 tons) month - on - month, the sample weekly inventory decreased by 1.3% (-1,414 tons) month - on - month. The total inventory days increased to 28.5 days, the downstream inventory days increased to 10.8 days, and the inventory days of upstream and other links decreased, showing a significant inventory structure differentiation [2] Macro - policy - Demand - side: Multiple incentives such as automobile trade - in subsidies and battery export tax - rebate policies stimulate terminal consumption and improve macro - liquidity [3] - Supply - side: On January 15, the National Development and Reform Commission proposed to introduce management measures for the comprehensive utilization of new energy vehicle power batteries, which will improve the recycling threshold and eliminate backward production capacity, optimizing the domestic supply structure in the long - term and raising the cost support center [3] - Industrial planning: The Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Plan, the key points of the "15th Five - Year Plan" for energy storage, and a series of deployments in the Central Economic Work Conference form synergistic benefits to support long - term supply - demand balance [3] - Macro - environment: The central bank's structural interest rate cut indirectly strengthens the long - term macro - positive atmosphere [3]