Orient Securities·2026-02-02 03:24Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [6] Core Viewpoints - The macro sentiment has fluctuated significantly, amplifying volatility in the commodity market. Short-term carbonate lithium prices have surged and then retreated, with inventory adjustments providing support. There remains potential for a rebound before the holiday. In the medium term, lithium salt supply is constrained, and mining costs are rising, maintaining the upward price logic for lithium. The cobalt sector is supported by raw material costs, showing strong price resilience with limited downside [4][12][13]. Summary by Sections 1. Cycle Assessment - The lithium and cobalt sectors are identified as having clear investment value, with recommendations for active positioning. The lithium sector has seen increased price volatility, with futures contracts experiencing significant declines. The price of lithium concentrate was reported at $2,070 per ton, down $144 from the previous week. The carbonate lithium price has significantly corrected, but downstream demand has led to active market transactions [8][12][13]. 2. Company and Industry Dynamics - Various companies have released performance signals, with notable announcements including Pilbara's production advancements and CATL's plans for a new battery manufacturing base in Yunnan. Yongshan Lithium and Yahua Group have provided profit forecasts indicating significant year-on-year growth, while Tianqi Lithium and Ganfeng Lithium have also reported expected turnarounds in profitability [15][16][17]. 3. Core Data on New Energy Materials - December production data shows mixed trends, with carbonate lithium production up 4% month-on-month and hydroxide lithium up 2%. The inventory levels are undergoing structural adjustments, with significant increases in imports of carbonate lithium and hydroxide lithium [18][31][49].