铅：需求承压与成本支持共存偏弱区间波动延续：铅期货期权四季度报告

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In January 2026, lead prices showed a fluctuating trend, mainly between 16,850 - 17,860 yuan. In February, lead is likely to have a weak - side oscillation, with a wide - range pattern remaining unchanged, and the fluctuation range is expected to be mainly between 16,500 - 17,600 yuan. The Shanghai lead trend is less affected by macro resonance compared to other varieties, and there may be a supply - demand mismatch and inventory accumulation around holidays. Overseas, changes in the export end should be noted [3]. - Macro factors have an impact on the non - ferrous metal market. The long - term demand for non - ferrous metals is boosted by factors such as technology, AI, and energy transformation. The Fed still has room for interest rate cuts in 2026, and China maintains a moderately loose monetary policy. The dollar index is expected to be weakly volatile, which may boost the attractiveness of metals. However, the new Fed chairman's policy combination has brought short - term pressure on metals [17]. - The supply and demand of lead are both weak. On the supply side, the supply of lead - rich silver lead ore is tight, the processing fee has declined, and the by - product benefits are considerable. The supply of primary lead is restricted by the ore supply, and the supply of recycled lead is supported by the high price of waste batteries and affected by winter environmental protection. On the demand side, due to the low finished product orders, lead battery enterprises have high finished product inventories, and their stockpiling of lead ingots is limited, resulting in a light trading volume in the lead spot market [3]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 First Part: Market Review - Lead Futures Trend Review: In January 2026, most of the time, the Shanghai lead fluctuated within the range of 16,850 - 17,860 yuan/ton. The raw materials were relatively strong, which limited the downward space of lead prices. The center of lead prices once rebounded due to the resonance of non - ferrous metals, but the demand was weak, and the price rose weakly and then fell [8]. - Lead Spot Basis: In January 2026, the basis mainly fluctuated between 0 and - 200, showing a weakening trend, with the futures being stronger than the spot [11]. 3.2 Second Part: Macro Analysis - Macro - factors Affecting Non - ferrous Metals: Technology, AI, and energy transformation boost the long - term demand for non - ferrous metals. The Fed has room for interest rate cuts in 2026, and China maintains a moderately loose monetary policy. The dollar index is expected to be weakly volatile, which may boost the attractiveness of metals. However, the new Fed chairman's "balance - sheet reduction + interest rate cut" policy combination has brought short - term pressure on non - ferrous metals [17]. - Future Focus: The rhythm of interest rate cuts and geopolitical impacts will continue to have a strong impact on the non - ferrous metal sector. China's policies are favorable, but the overseas trade disputes faced by lead still exist, which will continue to have an adverse impact on exports [21]. 3.3 Third Part: Supply - Demand Analysis 3.3.1 Raw Material End - Lead Ore Supply: In 2025, the global lead ore production was 457 million tons (metal content), with a year - on - year increase of only 0.7%. In 2026, it is expected to reach 467 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 2.2%. China's lead ore production increased in 2025, with a cumulative production of 117.77 million tons from January to October, a year - on - year increase of 4.8% according to the National Bureau of Statistics [27][32]. - Lead Ore Import: In 2025, the lead ore import volume was 1,419,824.94 tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.05%. The import window was occasionally opened, and the import of lead concentrates turned profitable [35]. - Lead Ore Processing Fee: The processing fee of high - silver lead concentrates has declined. In 2025, the processing fee showed a short - term rebound but weakened further in the second half of the year and continued into 2026. The by - product income has become the main source of smelter income, but the profit space of smelters is still restricted [39]. 3.3.2 Supply End - Refined Lead Production: In 2025, the production of primary lead increased, with a total output of 385.6 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 6.6%. In January 2026, the output is expected to increase slightly, but the actual output may be light due to environmental protection and profit issues. The output of recycled lead is expected to decline after reaching a high at the end of 2025 [42][45]. - Total Lead Supply: According to the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2025, the total lead output was 774.2 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.8% [52]. 3.3.3 Import - Export - Refined Lead Net Import: China has become a net importer of refined lead since 2024. In 2025, the cumulative net import was positive, with an import volume of 44,452.67 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 56.71%, and an export volume of 35,982.28 tons, a year - on - year increase of 63.60% [56]. 3.3.4 Inventory - Refined Lead Inventory: Since 2023, the LME lead inventory has increased significantly from a historical low, while the domestic inventory has fluctuated and recovered but is still at a relatively low level. As of the end of January 2026, the LME lead inventory was 205,575 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.18%, and the Shanghai lead inventory was 30,584 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 22.33% [59]. 3.3.5 Demand End - Lead Battery: In 2025, the domestic demand for lead batteries was strong under policy support, but the export declined due to anti - dumping by GCC countries. Since 2025, the export of lead batteries has shown negative growth, with a cumulative export volume of 219 million units in 2025, a year - on - year decrease of 12.79% [62]. - Automobile: In 2025, the production and sales of automobiles reached new highs, with new energy vehicles becoming the dominant force in the market [66]. - New - standard Electric Bicycle: The sales of new - standard electric bicycles at the beginning of 2026 were weak. Although the replacement of over - standard electric bicycles and the "trade - in" policy have boosted sales, the impact of lithium - battery replacement cannot be ignored [70]. - Motorcycle: In 2025, the production and sales of motorcycles increased, and the export also showed a significant growth trend [73]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Supply - Demand Balance - Global Refined Lead: According to the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG), in 2025, the global refined lead market had a surplus of 91,000 tons, and it is expected to increase to 102,000 tons in 2026 [81]. - Domestic Refined Lead: It is expected that the domestic refined lead will have a small surplus in 2026 [82]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Seasonal and Technical Analysis - LME Lead Position Structure: The current LME lead position structure is slightly bullish for lead prices [87]. - Lead Seasonal Trend: The seasonal trend of lead is related to the demand cycle. The months with a high probability of decline are March, September, November, and December, while the months with a high probability of increase are January, June, July, and August. However, lead prices declined in January in both 2025 and 2026, and there is a possibility of an opposite trend in February [88]. - Lead Technical Analysis: The Shanghai lead has maintained a wide - range oscillation pattern for a long time. In January 2026, it rose and then fell, and the support level is expected to be at 16,500 - 16,600, with the upper pressure level at 17,800 - 18,000. The oscillation pattern is expected to continue [92]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Conclusion and Operation Suggestions - Conclusion: In February 2026, the supply and demand of lead are expected to be weak, and there may be a supply - demand mismatch and inventory accumulation around holidays. Lead is likely to have a weak - side oscillation, mainly fluctuating between 16,500 - 17,600 yuan [95]. - Operation Suggestions: During the oscillation period, enterprises should purchase on demand and avoid excessive inventory. If the price drops significantly and is fully adjusted, they can consider buying hedging. In the case of low volatility, they can consider selling out - of - the - money options to collect option premiums [95].