对二甲苯：高位震荡市，月差偏弱PTA：高位震荡市MEG：区间操作

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - PX: High-level volatile market, backwardation in calendar spreads - PTA: High-level volatile market - MEG: Range-bound trading [1] 2. Core Views - PX: Before the holiday, it will be a high-level volatile market in the single contract, with backwardation in calendar spreads. The industry and funds are in a game, and the high-level volatility increases. The fundamentals are gradually weakening, and PX has entered a pattern of inventory accumulation. PTA processing fees above 450 should be shorted on rallies [7]. - PTA: It will be a range-bound market, with a bearish outlook on calendar spreads. PTA processing fees above 450 should be shorted on rallies. The polyester demand for PTA is expected to decline marginally, and it is difficult to change the PTA inventory accumulation pattern from January to February. Pay attention to the support at 5100 - 5200 yuan/ton [8]. - MEG: It will be a range-bound market in the single contract. The supply is increasing, and the downstream demand is weakening, making it difficult to change the inventory accumulation pattern [8][9]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Futures Market - Yesterday's closing prices: PX主力 at 7400, PTA主力 at 5270, MEG主力 at 3913, PF主力 at 6656, SC主力 at 470.8. The price changes were -82, -62, -44, -64, -1.7 respectively, and the percentage changes were -1.10%, -1.16%, -1.11%, -0.95%, -0.36% respectively [2]. - Calendar spreads: PX5 - 9 at 16, PTA5 - 9 at -12, MEG5 - 9 at -105, PF3 - 4 at -56, SC2 - 3 at -5.2. The price changes were 0, 6, -8, 0, 2.6 respectively [2]. Spot Market - Yesterday's spot prices: PX CFR China at 914.33 dollars/ton, PTA East China at 5290 yuan/ton, MEG spot at 3814 yuan/ton, Naphtha MOPJ at 596.5 dollars/ton, Dated Brent at 72.7 dollars/barrel. The price changes were -7, 40, -23, 0.5, 0.35 respectively [2]. - Spot processing fees: PX - Naphtha spread at 325 dollars/ton, PTA processing fee at 398.44 yuan/ton, Short - fiber processing fee at 120.64 yuan/ton, Bottle - chip processing fee at 121.38 yuan/ton, MOPJ Naphtha - Dubai crude spread at -4.34 dollars/ton. The price changes were -13, 6.79, -21.37, -73.92, 0 respectively [2]. Fundamental News - PX: On January 30, the PX price fell. The physical spread between PX and naphtha narrowed. The domestic PX plant operating rate rose to 89.2%, and the Asian plant operating rate was 81.6% (+1%). The PTA operating rate remained at 76.6%. The PX import volume in the first quarter increased to about 900,000 tons per month [3][5][7]. - MEG: A 400,000 - ton/year syngas - to - ethylene glycol plant in Xinjiang plans to shut down for equipment replacement this weekend, expected to last about 5 days. The plant operating rate rose to 74.4% (+1.3%), and the import volume from January to February will remain high [6][8]. - Polyester: The polyester maintenance volume from January to February was about 1.562 million tons, and a 200,000 - ton plant is scheduled for maintenance in March. A 400,000 - ton plant in Zhejiang will shut down for maintenance and plans to restart in early March. On January 30, the sales of direct - spun polyester staple fiber were polarized, with an average sales - to - production ratio of 65%. The sales - to - production ratio of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was about 30% [6].