金融期货早评-20260202

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Views of the Report - If Kevin Warsh is successfully appointed as the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, he will combine a hawkish stance with political compromise, implementing a unique policy of simultaneous interest rate cuts and balance - sheet reduction. His core goal is to compress the private sector's balance sheet and repair the government's balance sheet, with oil prices serving as a key supplementary tool for this policy. This series of policy adjustments will interact with the narrative of the loss of US dollar credit, becoming a crucial scenario to test this narrative [2]. - The market is expected to enter a cautious exploration period in February. The key lies in Warsh's explanation of policy contradictions during the Senate hearing. His combination policy of interest rate cuts and balance - sheet reduction may suppress risk assets such as equities and be beneficial for the bond market to carry out short - term borrowing and long - term investment strategies. However, the high - level operation of long - term yields also brings uncertainties to the real economy [2]. - The trend of Warsh's policies will become the core variable in the global financial market, and whether his nomination can be confirmed by the Senate is currently the primary uncertainty factor. Subsequently, three key points need to be focused on: the Senate voting result, the possible risk of the Fed's independence caused by Powell's departure, and the switch of the global market trading narrative [2]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - Market Information: Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chairman. Senate Democrats and some Republicans oppose the nomination. Eurozone Q4 2025 GDP grew 1.3% year - on - year. Japan's Tokyo January core CPI slowed to 2%. South Korea is concerned about the won's depreciation. The US continued to list Japan as a "monitoring object" [1]. - Core Logic: If Warsh takes office, the Fed's monetary policy framework may change from the "post - Keynesian data - dependent model" to the "supply - side monetarism" paradigm. The US dollar index may strengthen if US economic data is positive. His policy may suppress risk assets and benefit the bond market [2]. - RMB Exchange Rate: Warsh's nomination triggered high market volatility. The on - shore RMB depreciated slightly against the US dollar. The change in the Fed's policy framework may reshape market expectations, and the US dollar index may rise [2][3]. - Stock Index: The nomination of Warsh led to market fluctuations. Overseas market reactions may affect A - shares in the short term, causing a phased adjustment. The market style may shift from "small - and - medium - cap stocks outperforming" to "large - cap stocks outperforming" [6]. - Treasury Bonds: The bond market's rise was partly due to the stock market's adjustment and policy rumors. Warsh's nomination may lead to a deeper market adjustment. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield may break through 1.80%, and mid - line long positions can consider partial profit - taking [6][7][8]. - Container Shipping to Europe: The market shows a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. Near - month contracts are suppressed by weak spot prices, while long - term contracts are supported by geopolitical uncertainties. The market is expected to continue this differentiation [8][9][10]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The copper price first rose and then fell. Global copper inventories continued to rise, but the growth rate slowed. China's power grid investment may increase copper demand. Before the holiday, short - term range trading is recommended [12][13][14]. - Aluminum Industry Chain: The aluminum price was affected by funds and emotions, first rising and then falling. Fundamentally, there is pressure on aluminum prices due to increased production and weakening demand. In the long term, the aluminum price is expected to rise. For alumina, the long - term trend is weak, and for cast aluminum alloy, it is recommended to pay attention to the price difference with aluminum [16][17]. - Zinc: The zinc price recovered its previous gains. The supply is expected to be loose, and the demand is weak. It is expected to maintain a wide - range shock [17]. - Nickel - Stainless Steel: The prices of nickel and stainless steel fell. They are mainly affected by the market and macro - level emotions. The supply and demand pattern may be affected in the long - term, but the short - term impact is limited [18][19]. - Tin: The tin price fell, but there is support at the bottom. The market is in a state of divergence, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [20]. - Lead: The lead price was weak, and the market is expected to fluctuate within a range. Selling options to collect stable premiums is recommended [20]. Oils and Feeds - Oilseeds: The market shows a pattern of strong oils and weak meals. The supply of imported soybeans may have a gap in Q1, and the prices of domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal are not optimistic [22][23][24]. - Oils: The overall trend of oils is still prone to rise and difficult to fall. Palm oil is facing a pressure test, and the prices of soybean oil and rapeseed oil are affected by supply and demand factors such as production and policies [24][25][26]. Energy and Oil and Gas - Fuel Oil: The high - sulfur fuel oil supply is gradually recovering, but the demand is weak. The low - sulfur fuel oil supply is abundant, and the demand is stable. The cracking spread of high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to decline in the long - term, and the pressure on the low - sulfur fuel oil to contract is increasing [28][29]. - Asphalt: The asphalt price is rising weakly. The recent rise is driven by multiple factors, but the supply pressure will increase in the future. The 03 contract may provide a trading opportunity [30]. Precious Metals - Platinum & Palladium: Warsh's nomination led to a sharp decline in platinum and palladium prices. In the short - term, the "tightening trade" expectation does not change the long - term "loose trade" trend. Attention should be paid to position control [31][33][34]. - Gold & Silver: The prices of gold and silver fluctuated sharply. In the short - term, they may enter a phased adjustment period, but in the long - term, they are expected to rise due to factors such as the Fed's policy and the global de - dollarization trend [34][38][39]. Chemicals - Pulp - Offset Paper: The prices of pulp and offset paper futures fell. The decline is due to factors such as the overall bearish sentiment in the commodity market, increased port inventories, and reduced downstream demand. It is recommended to wait and see [40][41][42]. - LPG: The LPG price is affected by geopolitical factors. The supply is neutral - low, and the demand is weak. Attention should be paid to the risk of price increases [42][43]. - PTA - PX: The PX supply is expected to remain high, and the PTA supply is stable. The high processing fee of PTA is expected to be difficult to maintain. It is recommended to buy PX on dips and short the PTA processing fee on highs [43][44]. - MEG - Bottle Grade Resin: The demand for ethylene glycol is seasonally weak, and the supply is expected to increase. The price is expected to fluctuate widely with the macro - environment. Attention should be paid to geopolitical risks [46][47]. - Methanol: The methanol market is volatile, mainly affected by geopolitical risks and the improvement of the energy - chemical commodity market sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see [47]. - PP: The PP price is affected by macro - emotions and cost factors. The supply and demand are both decreasing. Attention should be paid to macro - trends and cost changes [49]. - PE: The PE price is affected by macro - emotions and cost factors. The supply is increasing, and the demand is decreasing. Attention should be paid to the risk of price declines [50]. - Pure Benzene - Styrene: The prices of pure benzene and styrene are affected by geopolitical factors. The supply of pure benzene is increasing, and the demand is decreasing. The supply of styrene will increase in February, and the demand will decline. It is recommended to wait and see and buy styrene on dips [50][52]. - Urea: The urea price is expected to decline in the short - term. It is recommended to close long positions [52]. - Glass - Soda Ash: The soda ash supply is expected to be in excess, and the glass market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. It is recommended to wait and see [54][56]. - Propylene: The propylene price is affected by cost and supply - demand factors. The supply and demand are both decreasing, and the price is expected to be supported. Attention should be paid to the development of the US - Iran situation [57]. Black Metals - Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil are in a range - bound state. The supply may increase, and the demand is seasonally weak. The iron ore price is affected by factors such as steel mill restocking and supply and demand [58][59]. - Iron Ore: The iron ore price follows the overall market trend. The supply is in a seasonal low, and the demand may increase with the rise of iron - water production [60]. - Coking Coal & Coke: The coking coal market is in a stage of excess supply, and the coke price increase may face difficulties. The short - term price volatility may increase, and the long - term trend depends on domestic mine复产 and downstream demand recovery [62]. - Silicon Iron & Silicon Manganese: The prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese are in a range - bound state, with cost support at the bottom and supply - demand pressure at the top [62]. Agricultural and Soft Commodities - Hogs: The pig prices in the north rebounded, and those in the south stabilized. The market is expected to see an increase in both supply and demand before the Spring Festival. The specific price trend depends on the actual出栏 volume and terminal consumption [64][65]. - Cotton: The cotton price is under pressure due to the strengthening of the US dollar. The domestic cotton price is supported by supply - demand expectations but restricted by the high domestic - foreign price difference. It is recommended to buy on dips [65][66]. - Sugar: The international raw sugar price fell, and the domestic sugar price is affected by international prices. The short - term price increase is mainly due to capital factors, and the upward space is limited [66][67][68]. - Eggs: The spot egg price is stable at a high level, and the large basis indicates risks after the Spring Festival. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range [68]. - Apples: The pre - holiday apple stocking accelerated, the spot price was loose, and the futures price was relatively stable. Attention should be paid to the logic of the shortage of delivery goods [69][70]. - Jujubes: The jujube supply is abundant, and the demand is the focus. The short - term price may fluctuate at a low level, and the long - term price is under pressure [70][71]. - Logs: The log inventory is at a low level, and the spot price is rising. The overall valuation is increasing. It is recommended to sell put options [72][73].