铝产业链：淡季已至弱现实与强预期博弈：铝产业链2026年2月报告-20260202

Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In January, the Shanghai aluminum futures showed an upward trend with significant fluctuations, driven by macro - factors and capital resonance. The alumina futures had a wide - range volatile trend affected by the chemical sector and supply - side production cuts. The cast aluminum alloy futures moved in tandem with Shanghai aluminum [6][9][12]. - In 2025, the alumina supply was loose, and it is expected to remain so in 2026. The electrolytic aluminum supply - demand situation worsened in 2025 but is expected to shift from oversupply to undersupply in 2026. The recycled aluminum alloy maintained a balanced pattern in 2025 and is expected to continue a tight - balance situation in 2026 [95][96]. - In February 2026, the aluminum price is expected to decline first and then rise, with the Shanghai aluminum price mainly ranging from 22,000 to 25,000. Alumina will continue to bottom - out, and the recommended strategy is to short on rallies, with the price mainly ranging from 2,200 to 2,900. The cast aluminum alloy price will be mainly in the range of 21,000 - 24,000 [100]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Aluminum: Since January, the Shanghai aluminum futures oscillated upward, with several sharp increases followed by consolidation, and a significant decline on the last trading day of the month affected by the precious metals market. Macro - factors and capital resonance were the main driving forces [6]. - Alumina: Since January, the alumina futures first rose, then fell, and then rebounded, showing a wide - range volatile trend, influenced by the active chemical sector and minor supply - side production cuts [9]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Since its listing in June, the cast aluminum alloy futures showed an oscillating upward trend, generally in sync with the Shanghai aluminum futures [12]. 3.2 Upstream of the Industrial Chain - Bauxite: In 2025, China's bauxite imports increased by 17.1% year - on - year, with imports from Guinea up 38%. The domestic bauxite production decreased by 7.86% year - on - year. The external dependence on bauxite is expected to exceed 75% in 2026 [17]. - Alumina: In 2025, China's alumina exports increased by 42.7% year - on - year, and imports in November increased by 134.11% year - on - year. The production increased, and with new capacity coming online, it is expected to grow by about 5% in 2026. As of January 16, 2026, the total alumina inventory increased by 36.5% compared with the same period in 2025 [21][23][27]. 3.3 Middle - stream of the Industrial Chain - Primary Aluminum Import: In November 2025, domestic primary aluminum imports decreased by 40.8% month - on - month and 2.5% year - on - year. From 2024 to now, imports have increased significantly, and it is expected to remain at a high level in the future [32]. - Electrolytic Aluminum Capacity: The total electrolytic aluminum capacity is stable with a slight increase. The in - production capacity has been increasing since 2024. In 2025, it maintained a high - level operation. In 2026, 1.78 million tons of capacity is planned to be cut, and 2.414 million tons of new capacity is to be released [36]. - Electrolytic Aluminum Production: In December 2025, electrolytic aluminum production increased by 3% year - on - year, and the annual production increased by 2.4% year - on - year. In December, the downstream开工率 decreased, and the aluminum - water ratio dropped [39]. - Aluminum Plant Profits: Since 2025, aluminum plant profits have increased significantly. As of January 19, 2026, the immediate profit of self - power - supplied aluminum plants and grid - powered aluminum plants has exceeded the 2023 - 2024 level [43]. - Aluminum Ingot Social Inventory: The annual inventory level has been decreasing in recent years. In 2026, it is expected to have two periods of inventory accumulation during the off - season, with the annual high point after the Spring Festival [46]. 3.4 Downstream of the Industrial Chain - Aluminum Processing Industry: Since 2023, the aluminum processing industry has had a low operating rate. Currently, it is in the off - season, and the operating rate of each segment has decreased month - on - month [52]. - Aluminum Alloy Import and Export: In November 2025, the import of unforged aluminum alloy decreased by 28.2% year - on - year and 4.1% month - on - month, while the export increased by 51.6% year - on - year and decreased by 1.1% month - on - month [55]. - Recycled Aluminum Alloy Production: The production of recycled aluminum alloy has been increasing year by year. From January to October 2025, the cumulative production increased by 23.55% year - on - year [59]. - Aluminum Alloy Product Inventory: Since 2025, the aluminum alloy ingot inventory has been accumulating, especially during the off - season, and it is expected to continue rising in the short term [62]. - Aluminum Product Export: In 2025, the cumulative export of unforged aluminum and aluminum products decreased by 8.0% year - on - year. Due to trade barriers, it is expected to continue to decline in 2026 [66]. 3.5 Terminal of the Industrial Chain - Real Estate Industry: In 2025, the real estate market was in a deep adjustment period, with investment, new construction, and sales all declining. It is expected to take time to recover [72][75]. - New Energy Vehicles: In 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles increased significantly. However, the growth rate is expected to slow down to 15 - 20% in 2026 [78]. - Three Major Home Appliances: In 2025, the production of three major home appliances showed a slow - down in growth. It is expected to maintain positive growth in 2026 with policy support [82]. - Power Grid Investment: In 2025, the power grid investment increased by 5.93% year - on - year. In 2026, the UHV construction is expected to continue to develop rapidly [85]. - Photovoltaic Industry: In 2025, the photovoltaic industry had a high - speed development, but there was over - capacity. In 2026, the industry will face resource integration, and the global new photovoltaic installation is expected to reach 665GW [89]. - Recycled Aluminum Import: In 2025, the import of scrap aluminum increased significantly. It is expected that the tight supply of scrap aluminum will continue [92].