铜：牛市之路，虽九死其犹未悔

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In January 2026, the global copper market hit a new high but with significant fluctuations. The rise was mainly driven by market sentiment and capital inflow, and the price increase was also affected by the changes in the US dollar index and the nomination of a new Fed chair. The domestic copper market showed a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, with increased inventory and alleviated structural contradictions [5][8]. - Looking ahead to 2026, the global copper market is expected to shift from a tight - balance to a supply - shortage situation, with a projected shortage of 150,000 tons of refined copper. The supply of copper concentrates will remain tight, while the demand from the power grid, new energy, and AI sectors is expected to grow [48][89]. - The long - term upward trend of copper prices is clear. Financially, the US dollar index is likely to decline in the long - term, and copper is expected to be an important asset allocation for macro funds. Fundamentally, although the short - term supply is abundant, the long - term supply of copper concentrates is tight, and demand is expected to increase [118]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Copper Market Review in January - The global copper market in January 2026 hit a new high with significant fluctuations. London copper briefly broke through the $14,000 mark but then fell back. The monthly gains of LME copper and SHFE copper were both around 5%, with the outer market slightly stronger than the inner market. Market sentiment and capital inflow were more important factors than fundamentals. The rise in gold and silver prices led to capital overflow into the copper market, and the high gold - copper ratio provided upward momentum for copper valuation [5][8]. - Macroeconomically, the Fed kept interest rates unchanged in January, and the US dollar index fell to a nearly 4 - year low, boosting the prices of gold, silver, and copper. However, Trump's nomination of a new Fed chair at the end of the month caused a shock in global assets, and the US dollar index rebounded strongly, dragging down copper prices [8]. - Domestically, China's manufacturing PMI in December 2025 rose back to the expansion range but fell below 50 in January 2026. Liquidity was further relaxed, inflation recovered moderately, and market risk appetite increased [8]. - Fundamentally, domestic electrolytic copper production reached a new monthly high, while demand entered the off - season. The global copper market showed a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, with increasing inventory and alleviated structural contradictions [8]. 3.2 Global Macro and Copper Market - China's inflation is expected to recover moderately in 2026. The manufacturing PMI in December 2025 rose back to the expansion range but fell below 50 in January 2026. The consumer price index and core CPI increased, and the PPI showed signs of recovery. The domestic economy is expected to continue the transformation trend of 2025, and copper will benefit from the strong demand in new energy, power grid investment, and AI data center construction [11][13]. - China's copper demand is likely to reach its peak and the growth rate will gradually slow down in the long - term, while the US copper demand has great growth potential due to the reshoring of manufacturing and the expansion of AI capital expenditure. The US is entering a new inventory replenishment cycle, which is positive for copper prices in the medium - term. Although Nvidia's downward revision of the copper demand forecast in data centers caused short - term negative sentiment, the impact on the overall supply - demand balance is limited [18]. - The US dollar index has weakened, which has boosted the prices of gold and silver. The Fed's interest rate decision and Trump's nomination of a new Fed chair have affected the US dollar index. In the long - term, the US dollar is likely to enter a downward cycle [20]. 3.3 Copper Supply Situation Analysis - Mine End: The global copper mine faces the problems of slow growth and decreasing grade. The annual compound growth rate of global copper mine production has declined from about 5% during 2015 - 2016 to about 2% in recent years. Major mining companies such as Southern Copper and Glencore have lowered their future production forecasts. The global copper concentrate supply shortage is difficult to alleviate in the short - term, and the supply gap is expected to widen in 2026 and may not be alleviated until 2028 [23][25][27]. - Domestic Smelting End: In 2025, China's electrolytic copper production reached a new high, mainly due to the release of new capacity, the high price of by - products such as sulfuric acid, and the substitution of scrap copper. In January 2026, domestic electrolytic copper production increased slightly, but it is expected to decline in February. In 2026, domestic electrolytic copper production is expected to be about 13 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.2%, and global electrolytic copper production is expected to decrease by 4% [31][33]. - Copper Concentrate Processing Fees: The long - term processing fee (TC/RC) of copper concentrates in 2026 has been set at $0/ton and $0 cents/lb, indicating a tight supply situation. The competition for global copper concentrates will become more intense, and the import copper concentrate index (TC) in China is expected to continue to decline [36]. - Scrap Copper and Anode: In 2025, China's recycled copper raw material imports and domestic recycling volume increased. The proportion of recycled copper raw materials flowing to the smelting end continued to rise. In January 2026, the spread between refined and scrap copper widened, and the supply of scrap anodes increased, boosting electrolytic copper production [37][39]. - Electrolytic Copper Import and Export: In 2025, China's electrolytic copper import volume decreased, and the export volume increased, achieving a tight supply - demand balance. In 2026, the adjustment trend of the import - export structure is expected to continue, and the net import volume may continue to decline [40][42]. 3.4 Copper Demand Situation Analysis - Domestic Copper Products Production: In 2025, China's copper products production reached a new high. In January 2026, production was in the seasonal off - season. In 2026, China's copper products production is expected to maintain double - digit growth, and global total demand is expected to increase by 4 - 5% year - on - year [45][48]. - Refined Copper Rod: In 2026, the production of refined copper rods is expected to increase significantly, mainly due to the strengthening of domestic power grid investment. The "14th Five - Year Plan" period will see a significant increase in power grid investment, and 2026 is expected to achieve double - digit growth [49][51]. - Copper Tube: In 2025, the output of copper tubes increased slightly. In 2026, the output is expected to decline slightly due to the limited effect of consumption - stimulating policies and the high - base effect of exports [52][54]. - Copper Bar: In 2025, the production of copper bars decreased, and in 2026, it is expected to continue to decline, becoming a drag on copper consumption due to factors such as the real estate downturn, high copper prices, and policy uncertainties [55][57]. - Copper Plate and Strip: In 2025, the production of copper plate and strip was lower than the average in recent years, and it is expected to continue to decline in 2026 due to the impact of the real estate cycle [58][60]. - Copper Foil: In 2025, the output of copper foil increased significantly, and in 2026, it is expected to maintain high - speed growth due to the development of the new energy vehicle and energy storage industries [61][67]. - Power Grid Investment: In 2025, power grid investment reached a new high. In the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, power grid investment is expected to increase significantly, and in 2026, the investment of the State Grid and Southern Grid is expected to reach 70 billion yuan and 19 billion yuan respectively, with a year - on - year growth rate of over 7% [68][71]. - Real Estate Investment: In 2025, real estate investment continued to decline, and in 2026, it is expected to remain a drag on copper consumption [72][74]. - Home Appliance Consumption: In 2025, the policy of replacing old home appliances with new ones boosted consumption, but the growth rate slowed down in the second half of the year. In 2026, the policy will continue, which is expected to support home appliance consumption [75][77]. - New Energy Vehicles and AI: In 2025, the production of new energy vehicles increased significantly, and it is expected to maintain high - speed growth in the future. The copper demand in the new energy and AI fields is expected to increase rapidly, and the combined copper demand is expected to account for 22% by 2030 [78][80]. 3.5 Copper Inventory Change Analysis - In 2025, the total inventory of the three major global exchanges increased, but the inventory structure was contradictory. In 2026, the global copper market shifted to a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, and the total inventory increased, with the structural contradiction alleviating. The domestic social inventory has entered the inventory accumulation cycle [83][85]. 3.6 Global Copper Supply - Demand Balance - In 2025, the global refined copper market was in a state of supply surplus. In 2026, it is expected to shift to a supply - shortage situation, with a shortage of 150,000 tons [89]. 3.7 Copper Position Analysis - As of January 20, 2026, the total position of COMEX copper futures and options increased, but the net long position decreased. The long - position of LME copper investment funds decreased in January, indicating that the market's bullish sentiment has become more cautious [97]. 3.8 Arbitrage Analysis - In January, the Shanghai - London ratio of copper decreased, and it is expected to continue to decline in 2026. The copper - zinc ratio has been rising and is expected to continue to rise in 2026 [102]. 3.9 Copper Option Market - In January, the historical volatility and implied volatility of copper options rose to a nearly 3 - year high. The market showed signs of over - buying in the short - term, and it is suitable to sell options. The option strategy suggests constructing a short - position of slightly out - of - the - money put options to collect premiums. The PCR ratio shows that the option market's expectation of copper prices has turned bullish [107][109]. 3.10 Copper Market Outlook and Operation Suggestions - Technically, copper has broken through the long - term shock range and formed a 20 - year cup - and - handle pattern, which is a bullish signal [116]. - In January, the rise of copper prices was mainly due to the repair of valuation. In the long - term, the downward trend of the US dollar index is clear, and copper is expected to be an important asset allocation for macro funds. In the short - term, the supply is abundant, the demand is in the off - season, and the inventory is increasing. The operation suggestion is that downstream demanders can conduct long - term hedging operations, and the option strategy can consider selling slightly out - of - the - money put options or constructing a short - straddle strategy to short volatility. The short - term support range of the SHFE copper main contract is expected to be 98,000 - 99,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure range is expected to be 108,000 - 110,000 yuan/ton [118].