国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：贵金属及基本金属-20260202

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold is releasing risks, and silver is falling from a high level. Copper is waiting for guidance with price fluctuations. Zinc is in a range - bound oscillation. Lead has weak supply and demand with price fluctuations. Aluminum's volatility is increasing, and attention should be paid to the equity market trend. Alumina's oscillation is converging, and cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum. Platinum should be wary of panic selling, and palladium is following a weak adjustment. Nickel is dominated by macro - sentiment at the margin, with a game between fundamentals and speculative positions. Stainless steel has frequent maintenance and production cuts in February, and the nickel - iron expectation provides support at the bottom [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - Price Performance: Yesterday, the closing prices of various gold and silver products all declined significantly. For example, the daily decline of Comex gold 2602 was 9.30%, and that of Comex silver 2602 was 26.37%. The night - trading prices also showed large drops, with the night - trading decline of Shanghai silver 2602 reaching 17.00% [4]. - Trading Volume and Position: The trading volume of some products increased, while the positions decreased. For example, the trading volume of Shanghai gold 2602 increased by 372,766, and the position decreased by 24,521 [4]. - Inventory: The inventory of some products decreased. For example, the inventory of Shanghai silver decreased by 26,940 kg, and the inventory of Comex silver decreased by 3,431,295 ounces [4]. - Macro and Industry News: Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chairman, which led to a sharp rise in the US dollar and a sell - off of gold and silver. The US Senate passed a $1.2 trillion government spending bill, but a short - term government shutdown was inevitable. The CME raised the trading margins for gold and silver [4][7]. Copper - Price Performance: The closing prices of Shanghai copper and London copper both declined. The daily decline of Shanghai copper's main contract was 4.98%, and that of London copper 3M electronic disk was 4.25% [8]. - Trading Volume and Position: The trading volume of Shanghai copper index increased by 606,369, and the position decreased by 29,840. The trading volume of London copper 3M electronic disk decreased by 52,697, and the position increased by 1,459 [8]. - Inventory and Warehouse Receipts: The inventory of Shanghai copper increased by 5,223 tons, and the inventory of London copper decreased by 1,100 tons. The注销仓单 ratio of London copper was 23.89%, with a decrease of 0.87% [8]. - Macro and Industry News: Trump nominated a new Fed chairman, and some copper mines in Chile had production problems. For example, the Mantoverde copper - gold mine in northern Chile basically stopped production, and Lundin Mining lowered its 2026 copper production guidance [8][10]. Zinc - Price Performance: The closing prices of Shanghai zinc and London zinc both declined. The daily decline of Shanghai zinc's main contract was 0.44%, and that of London zinc 3M electronic disk was 2.22% [11]. - Trading Volume and Position: The trading volume of Shanghai zinc's main contract increased by 172,422, and the position decreased by 8,962. The trading volume of London zinc decreased by 23,075, and the position increased by 5,365 [11]. - News: The US Senate passed a $1.2 trillion government spending bill, but a short - term government shutdown was inevitable [12][13]. Lead - Price Performance: The closing prices of Shanghai lead and London lead both declined. The daily decline of Shanghai lead's main contract was 1.86%, and that of London lead 3M electronic disk was 0.77% [14]. - Trading Volume and Position: The trading volume of Shanghai lead's main contract increased by 34,910, and the position decreased by 2,608. The trading volume of London lead decreased by 4,770, and the position increased by 3,394 [14]. - News: Trump nominated a new Fed chairman, and some candidates called for interest rate cuts [14]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - Price Performance: The closing prices of Shanghai aluminum, LME aluminum, Shanghai alumina, and aluminum alloy all showed certain changes. For example, the closing price of Shanghai aluminum's main contract decreased by 1,030 compared with T - 1 [16]. - Trading Volume and Position: The trading volume and position of each product also changed. For example, the trading volume of Shanghai aluminum's main contract increased by 254,608 compared with T - 1, and the position decreased by 57,628 [16]. - News: The global AI computing power construction has led to a surge in transformer orders, and Wall Street is focusing on Warsh's potential Fed policies [18]. Platinum and Palladium - Price Performance: The closing prices of platinum and palladium products all declined. For example, the decline of platinum futures 2606 was 11.70%, and the decline of palladium futures 2606 was 11.88% [19]. - Trading Volume and Position: The trading volume of some products increased, and the positions decreased. For example, the trading volume of Guangzhou platinum increased by 12,277, and the position decreased by 2,505 [19]. - News: The US federal government entered a partial "shutdown" state, and there were various international news such as Russia - US talks and SpaceX's satellite deployment plan [22]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Price Performance: The closing prices of Shanghai nickel and stainless steel's main contracts both declined. The closing price of Shanghai nickel's main contract decreased by 7,470 compared with T - 1, and that of stainless steel's main contract decreased by 445 [25]. - Trading Volume and Position: The trading volume of Shanghai nickel's main contract increased by 229,168 compared with T - 1, and the trading volume of stainless steel's main contract increased by 167,856 [25]. - Industry Chain: The prices and spreads of various products in the nickel industry chain changed. For example, the price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron remained unchanged, and the nickel plate - high - nickel iron spread decreased by 20 [25]. - News: The Indonesian government has taken a series of measures, such as suspending the issuance of new smelting licenses, revising the benchmark price formula of nickel ore, and adjusting the nickel ore production target. There were also news about steel product export license management and ship accidents [25][26][28].