铁矿石：宏观驱动减弱，逢高空配为主

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - The macro - driving force has weakened, and short - term supply - demand contradictions of iron ore are continuously accumulating. The support of restocking demand for prices is continuously weakening. Although supply has entered the off - season, it has maintained high year - on - year growth. The price ceiling is still restricted by industrial chain profits, and the restocking demand drive has entered the final stage. The short - term price peak has appeared. It is recommended to short on rebounds [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Aspect - Fed's next - term chairman Waller is hawkish, causing a phased decline in precious metals and non - ferrous commodities. In China, the January PMI data fell below the boom - bust line again, and the domestic economic recovery shows a pulsed characteristic. Policies to expand domestic demand still need to continue to be strengthened [3]. Supply Aspect - Current overseas ore shipments are still in the off - season. The weekly shipment volume has rebounded slightly on a month - on - month basis. According to seasonal patterns, overseas ore shipments will continue to decline on a month - on - month basis until mid - February. However, the current overseas ore shipment level is higher than the same period in the past five years and much higher than the same period last year. The main reasons are the high stability of overseas ore shipments and the low shipment base last year due to the hurricane in Australia. Domestic ore supply is also in the off - season. Overall, the supply side has entered a seasonally contracting stage, but the supply - side support needs an unexpected decline to increase [3]. Demand Aspect - Domestic demand has declined slightly but is higher than the same period last year. The main reason is the increase in regular restarts of domestic steel mills after maintenance. However, the weakening of steel prices has led to a month - on - month decline in steel mill profit levels, and the profitability of steel mills is lower than the same period last year. Terminal demand is in the seasonal off - season, and short - term iron ore demand is expected to remain weak [3]. Inventory Aspect - The inventory of imported ore at steel mills has continued to rise at an accelerating pace. The seasonal restocking of steel mills before the Spring Festival is coming to an end, and the supporting effect of restocking is gradually weakening. Port inventories continue to accumulate and are at the highest level in the past five years. Coupled with the weakening of spot prices, it is expected that the pressure on port inventory accumulation will remain high in the short term [3]. Strategy - Conduct range operations and sell covered call options [3]