中辉有色观点-20260202

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Wait for volatility reduction, long - term strategic allocation value remains unchanged [1] - Silver: Wait for stabilization [1] - Copper: Long - term holding [1] - Zinc: Rebound under pressure, short - term wait - and - see, long - term buy on dips [1][10] - Lead: Under pressure [1] - Tin: Under pressure [1] - Aluminum: Under pressure [1] - Nickel: Under pressure [1] - Industrial silicon: Wide - range oscillation, buy on dips [1] - Polysilicon: Cautiously bearish [1] - Lithium carbonate: Cautiously bullish [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The sharp decline in gold and silver is the result of the resonance of trading structure, macro - narrative, and short - term sentiment catalysts. Long - term gold investment logic remains unchanged, and short - term risks need to be watched [2][3] - Copper is affected by the nomination of the new Fed chairman and the slump in precious metals in the short term, but the long - term logic is still solid [4][5][6] - Zinc is under pressure in the short term due to macro and sector sentiment cooling, and it is advisable to wait and see. In the long term, consider buying on dips [8][9][10] - Aluminum prices are under pressure at high levels due to weakened overseas disturbances and seasonal off - peak demand [11][13][14] - Nickel prices are under pressure due to weak downstream consumption. It is advisable to take profits and wait and see [15][17][18] - Lithium carbonate prices are volatile at high levels. Due to supply tightening and potential demand increase, it is necessary to hold positions cautiously [20][21] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Gold and Silver - Market Performance: London spot silver once fell more than 35% below $75, and spot gold once fell nearly 13% below $4,700. COMEX gold fell 8.35%, and COMEX silver fell 25.5% [2] - Reasons for the Decline: Extreme trading congestion and high leverage, the impact of the new Fed chairman nominee on the core macro - narrative, and the ebb of geopolitical risks [2][3] - Strategy Recommendation: Short - term focus on the performance around 1030 for domestic gold. Long - term long - term logic remains unchanged, and short - term risks need to be watched [3] Copper - Market Performance: Shanghai copper main contract fell 4.75%, LME copper fell 4.63%, and COMEX copper fell 5.01% [4] - Industry Logic: Global copper mine shortage continues, domestic smelter capacity is expected to be reduced, and demand in the power and new energy sectors is on the rise. Short - term affected by precious metals slump [4][5] - Strategy Recommendation: Short - term copper is under pressure to fall back. It is recommended to take profits on long positions and not blindly chase up or down. Long - term long positions should maintain patience. Short - term Shanghai copper focuses on the range of [100,000, 105,000] yuan/ton, and LME copper focuses on the range of [12,500, 13,500] dollars/ton [6] Zinc - Market Performance: Shanghai zinc main contract fell 2.07%, LME zinc fell 2.40% [8] - Industry Logic: Global zinc mine supply may shrink in 2026, domestic and overseas smelter production is affected, and emerging fields' demand growth may offset part of the traditional demand decline [9] - Strategy Recommendation: Short - term wait - and - see. Long - term, consider buying on dips. Shanghai zinc focuses on the range of [25,000, 26,000] yuan/ton, and LME zinc focuses on the range of [3,350, 3,450] dollars/ton [10] Aluminum - Market Performance: LME aluminum fell 2.90%, Shanghai aluminum main contract fell 4.03% [11] - Industry Logic: Overseas disturbances to aluminum production weaken, domestic inventory accumulates, and downstream demand enters the off - season [13] - Strategy Recommendation: Short - term take profits and wait and see, pay attention to the accumulation of aluminum ingot social inventory. The main operation range is [23,000 - 25,100] [14] Nickel - Market Performance: LME nickel fell 5.04%, Shanghai nickel main contract fell 5.07%, and stainless steel main contract fell 3.05% [15] - Industry Logic: Indonesia reduces nickel ore production target, domestic pure nickel inventory accumulates, and downstream stainless steel inventory rises slightly [17] - Strategy Recommendation: Take profits and wait and see, pay attention to Indonesian policies and downstream stainless steel inventory changes. The main operation range of nickel is [130,000 - 150,000] [18] Lithium Carbonate - Market Performance: The main contract LC2605 opened low and closed at the daily limit [19] - Industry Logic: Supply is expected to be tight due to production decline and uncertain resumption of production. Demand may increase due to pre - holiday stocking and policy adjustment. Total inventory has been decreasing for 3 weeks [20] - Strategy Recommendation: Hold positions cautiously in the range of [14,500 - 155,000] [21]