股指关注美元指数，债市或震荡运行

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - For the stock index, due to Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair, Warsh's relatively hawkish policy stance led to a sharp rise in the US dollar last Friday, and gold and silver were heavily sold. The US Senate passed a $1.2 trillion government spending bill, but a brief government shutdown is inevitable. Trump said that the US and Iran are in negotiations, and an advisor to Iran's Supreme Leader said that a "negotiation framework" is taking shape. Trump also said that negotiations on Greenland are about to reach an agreement. China's official manufacturing PMI in January was 49.3, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 49.4. With the rebound of overseas precious metals and the PMI below the boom - bust line, the stock index may fluctuate. The MACD indicator shows that the market index may fluctuate, and the strategy outlook is for range - bound movement [11]. - For government bonds, with the publication of General Secretary Xi Jinping's important article in Qiushi Journal, currently there is no obvious major negative for the bond market, and it is generally oscillating on the upside. However, there is no further impetus to push interest rates down. After the repair since the beginning of the year, allocation funds may have established many positions. At the current position, if more allocation funds cannot be attracted, the downward space for bond yields may be quite limited, and the bond market may move sideways in a relatively narrow range, waiting for the emergence of the next - stage main theme. The MACD indicator shows that the T main contract may fluctuate, and the strategy outlook is for oscillating movement [12]. Summary by Directory Financial Futures Strategy Suggestions Stock Index Strategy Suggestions - Stock index trend review: A - shares fluctuated and diverged throughout the day, with the Shanghai Composite Index once falling below 4100 points and closing down nearly 1% [11]. - Core view: As mentioned above, the stock index may fluctuate [11]. - Technical analysis: The MACD indicator shows that the market index may fluctuate [11]. - Strategy outlook: Range - bound movement [11]. Government Bond Strategy Suggestions - Government bond trend review: The 30 - year main contract fell 0.23%, the 10 - year main contract rose 0.06%, the 5 - year main contract rose 0.01%, and the 2 - year main contract remained flat [12]. - Core view: As mentioned above, the bond market may oscillate [12]. - Technical analysis: The MACD indicator shows that the T main contract may fluctuate [12]. - Strategy outlook: Oscillating movement [12]. Key Data Tracking PMI - On January 31, 2026, the National Bureau of Statistics announced that the manufacturing PMI in January dropped to 49.3%. Compared with December last year, it dropped significantly, but it was basically the same as in November last year. The production recovered, mainly due to the warming - up of upstream industry starts, and export orders strengthened slightly, which may continuously drive high - tech manufacturing. However, there is no clear improvement in demand to support the production recovery, and inventory has a continuous accumulation trend. Rising international bulk prices may continue to affect the profitability of industrial enterprises [18]. CPI - Seasonal factors and the low - base effect are expected to push up the CPI. Four factors will push up the year - on - year central level of CPI in 2026: low base, the narrowing decline of pork prices, the impact of gold prices, and the expansion of service consumption [21]. Import and Export - In December 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of exports unexpectedly rebounded to 6.6%, much higher than the Reuters' consensus expectation of 3%. In the month - on - month dimension, it increased by 8.3%, higher than the average of the past ten years (5.9%); the two - year compound growth rate also rebounded to 8.6% (previous value 6.3%). The unexpected growth of exports throughout the year was mainly due to two cognitive biases in the market: overestimating the impact of trade frictions and underestimating the upward power of the global manufacturing cycle. Among major trading partners, Africa's contribution to exports in 2025 was second only to ASEAN. The cycle of "Belt and Road investment driving foreign trade" may continue in 2026 [24]. Large - scale Industrial Enterprises - In November, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial enterprise profits continued to be negative, and the decline widened to - 13.1%, reaching the weakest level since September 2024. The year - on - year growth rate of revenue in November rebounded to - 0.3%. From the breakdown of volume, price, and profit margin, the price factor was basically flat, the volume growth showed a good rebound, and the decline in profit growth was mainly due to the significant decline in the profit margin [28]. Fixed - Asset Investment - In 2025, the growth rate of fixed - asset investment was - 3.8%, significantly lower than in 2024 and turning from positive to negative. It is estimated that the growth rate in December was - 16.0%, and the decline continued to widen. In terms of types, in December, the growth rate of private investment was - 17.2%, and the growth rate of public investment was - 14.3%, with both declines widening. In terms of composition, in December, the growth rate of construction and installation projects dropped to - 28.0%, while the growth rates of equipment and tool purchases and other expenses rebounded to 8.7% and 0.3% respectively, which were among the few sub - items with a rebound in growth rate in fixed - asset investment [31]. Social Retail - In 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of social retail, social retail excluding automobiles, and above - quota retail were 3.7%, 4.4%, and 3.3% respectively, all slightly higher than in 2024. In December, the monthly growth rate of social retail dropped to 0.9%, while the decline of above - quota retail narrowed to - 1.9%. The differentiation was mainly due to two reasons: weak consumption across channels, especially the slowdown in the growth rates of offline catering, offline and online retail in December, and the weakening drag of durable goods [34]. Social Financing - Under the suppression of government bonds, the growth rate of social financing continued to decline. In 2025, the growth rate of social financing was basically dominated by government bonds. In August 2025, government bonds decreased year - on - year, and the growth rate of social financing also declined. In December, medium - and long - term loans to enterprises increased year - on - year, which may be related to the coordinated efforts of policy - based financial instruments. On January 15, the central bank introduced a series of policy combinations at a press conference, mainly focusing on structural tools, implementing structural interest rate cuts, and lowering the interest rates of re - loans, rediscounts, and PSL by 0.25 percentage points [37].