海外利率周报20260202:沃什获提名,美债呈现陡峭化交易-20260202
Guolian Minsheng Securities·2026-02-02 06:04
- Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the U.S. Treasury yields showed a pattern of long - end rising and short - end falling, with the yield curve becoming steeper. The market still bets on a possible easing cycle later this year, driving down short - term interest rates, while long - term inflation and term premium expectations are under pressure due to uncertainties in fiscal and trade policies, budget deficits, and potential threats to the Fed's independence [1][12]. - The Fed maintained the federal funds rate target range at 3.50%–3.75% as expected in the January FOMC meeting. The Fed revised up its outlook on the U.S. economy, believing that economic growth momentum has strengthened, the labor market has shown signs of stabilization, and inflation remains high but has not deteriorated further [2][12]. - Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair. Warsh's past stance was hawkish, but he has shown signs of turning dovish recently. His future policy stance will be an important observation indicator for the market [2][13]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 U.S. Treasury Yield Review This Week 3.1.1 Warsh's Nomination and the Steepening of U.S. Treasury Yields - This week (January 23 - January 30, 2026), the changes in U.S. Treasury yields were as follows: 1 - month (-6bp, 3.72%), 1 - year (-5bp, 3.48%), 2 - year (-8bp, 3.52%), 5 - year (-5bp, 3.79%), 10 - year (+2bp, 4.26%), 30 - year (+5bp, 4.87%). The yield curve became steeper [1][12]. - The Fed maintained the federal funds rate target range at 3.50%–3.75% in the January FOMC meeting. Waller and Milan voted against, advocating a 25bp rate cut. The Fed revised up its outlook on the U.S. economy [2][12]. - Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair. Warsh defeated other candidates. His past stance was hawkish, but he has shown dovish signs recently [2][13]. 3.1.2 This Week's U.S. Treasury Auctions - On January 26, a $69 billion 2 - year U.S. Treasury bill auction was held. The winning yield was 3.580%, the bid - to - cover ratio was 2.75 times, and the tail was - 1.375 [18]. - On January 27, a $70 billion 5 - year U.S. Treasury bill auction was held. The winning yield was 3.823%, the bid - to - cover ratio was 2.34 times, and the tail was 0.300 [18]. - On January 29, a $44 billion 7 - year U.S. Treasury bill auction was held. The winning yield was 4.018%, the bid - to - cover ratio was 2.45 times, and the tail was 0.175 [19]. 3.2 U.S. Macroeconomic Indicator Comments - The U.S. PPI in December had a monthly环比 increase of 0.5%, much higher than the market expectation of 0.2%, and a year - on - year increase of 3%, indicating persistent inflation risks. The U.S. consumer confidence index in January dropped 9.7 points to 84.5, lower than the forecast of 90.6, hitting the lowest level since May 2014, reflecting consumers' increased concerns about the economic outlook [3][27]. - The Fed maintained the federal funds rate in the 3.5% - 3.75% range, pausing the easing cycle after three consecutive rate cuts. This decision reflects the Fed's recognition of the current economic resilience and its difficult balance between high inflation and a weak labor market [3][28]. - The number of initial jobless claims in the week ending January 24 decreased to 209,000, slightly lower than the previous week's revised figure of 210,000 and slightly higher than the market expectation of 206,000. The number of continued claims decreased to 1.827 million, the lowest since September 2024, showing a mild and stable labor market [3][28]. 3.3 Comments on Major Asset Classes - Bonds: German bond yields fell across the board, and Japanese bond yields fluctuated slightly overall. The decline in German bond yields was due to the market's expectation of the ECB maintaining or relaxing monetary policy. The movement of Japanese bond yields was affected by the slowdown in inflation and the Bank of Japan's cautious policy stance [30]. - Equities: Global equity markets were significantly differentiated, with Asian markets performing strongly. The top three gainers were the Korea Composite Index (+4.70%), the Hang Seng Index (+2.38%), and the India Sensex30 (+0.90%). The top three losers were the Vietnam VN30 (-2.31%), the German DAX (-1.45%), and the Nikkei 225 (-0.97%) [31]. - Commodities: Bitcoin, LME aluminum, and the hog index were under pressure. The top three gainers were Brent crude oil (+7.30%), London silver (+4.23%), and LME copper (+3.48%). The top three losers were Bitcoin (-5.97%), LME aluminum (-2.05%), and the hog index (-1.36%) [32]. - Foreign Exchange: The Japanese yen, Swiss franc, and South Korean won strengthened, while the U.S. dollar and some Asian currencies declined. The top three gainers were the Japanese yen (+2.99%), the Swiss franc (+2.60%), and the South Korean won (+1.78%). The top three losers were the Indian rupee (-0.58%), the Hong Kong dollar (-0.37%), and the U.S. dollar (-0.24%) [33]. 3.4 Market Tracking - The report provides multiple charts showing the changes in bond yields, stock indices, commodity prices, and foreign exchange rates of major global economies this week, as well as the latest economic data panels of the United States, Japan, and the Eurozone [35][38][41][43][46][53][58].