黑色金属数据日报-20260202

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The steel market has unclear drivers and is mainly in a state of oscillation. The black - sector currently has no prominent contradictions, and the market provides little tradable information. The demand support for the market is limited, and the actual resumption of production in steel mills may be slow. The hot - rolled coil basis is favorable for spot - futures positions, and the hot - rolled coil spot - futures positive spread can still be rolled for operation [2]. - The sentiment of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese has warmed up, and the prices of the two silicons are oscillating upwards. Although the fundamentals are under pressure in the near term, with high supply and weak demand, the short - term market sentiment is dominant, and the prices may be in a strong - side oscillation [3]. - The coking coal and coke markets are in the off - season with insufficient drivers and are oscillating following the market narrative. After the pre - holiday replenishment ends, downstream will start a period of active destocking. It is recommended to cash in the spot at high prices before the holiday and wait for opportunities to short on the futures when the price rises [5]. - The iron ore market is supported in the short - term by "resumption of production + replenishment", but there is long - term pressure from inventory. In the short - term, it is in an oscillating and strong pattern, but there is obvious upward pressure in the long - term. It is recommended to enter short positions at the pressure level for medium - and long - term investment [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The weekend spot market was weakly stable, with some varieties dropping about 10 yuan. The market is gradually entering the holiday - closing state, and the liquidity in the spot market is shrinking. The steel demand is seasonally weakening, and the support from demand for the market is limited. Steel mills have a willingness to resume production, but the actual resumption may be slow. Traders are not very willing to do open - position winter storage and are more suitable to participate in the market through the basis. The iron - water production may remain stable before the Spring Festival and has room for resumption later. The downstream replenishment is approaching the end. In terms of strategies, a unilateral oscillating approach can be adopted, and the hot - rolled coil basis is conducive to the entry of spot - futures positions, and the hot - rolled coil spot - futures positive spread can be rolled for operation [2]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - With the warming of market sentiment, the prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are oscillating upwards. The domestic economy is resilient, the real - estate market shows short - term signs of stabilization and recovery, the sector rotation effect is strengthened, and market funds are abundant. However, the direct and terminal demand is generally flat, and the demand side is difficult to improve in the short - term. The alloy plants have poor profits, but the production is still relatively high, and the medium - term supply surplus pressure remains. The domestic macro - policies are accelerating, and the industrial policies have an impact on the supply and cost of the two silicons. In the near term, the fundamentals are under pressure, but the short - term market sentiment is dominant, and the prices may be in a strong - side oscillation [3]. Coking Coal and Coke - On the spot side, the first round of coke price increase has finally landed, but the market is not optimistic about the future, and the downstream procurement is cautious. The coking coal auction has many failed bids, with more price drops than increases. On the Mongolian coal side, the customs clearance has slowed down due to port storage pressure, and the market trading is cold. On the futures side, affected by the relaxation of the "three red lines" for real - estate enterprises and the strong market sentiment in the first half of the week, the black sector was strongly oscillating. The market has entered the off - season, the industrial data is weak, and there is no obvious upward or downward drive. After the pre - holiday replenishment ends, the downstream will start active destocking. It is recommended to cash in the spot at high prices before the holiday and wait for opportunities to short on the futures when the price rises [5]. Iron Ore - The steel mill's hot - metal production is basically stable at 227.98 tons (- 0.12). The steel mill profitability has slightly declined, and according to the maintenance plan, the hot - metal production will continue to rise significantly in February. The daily average ore removal volume at 47 ports has increased significantly, and the port inventory has continued to rise and is higher than the same period last year. The steel mill's in - plant inventory is still at a relatively low level in recent years. The short - term support for the iron ore price comes from the expectation of the steel mill's resumption of production and pre - holiday replenishment, but the long - term pressure comes from the import inventory. In the short - term, it is in an oscillating and strong pattern, and in the long - term, the upward pressure is obvious. It is recommended to enter short positions at the pressure level for medium - and long - term investment [6]. Investment Strategies - For steel, use unilateral interval operation or short - term long - band operation, roll the hot - rolled coil spot - futures positive spread, or use option strategies to assist spot procurement and sales [7]. - For ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, take short - term long positions at low prices [7]. - For coking coal and coke, cash in the spot at appropriate times before the holiday and wait for opportunities to short on the futures when the price rises [7]. - For iron ore, place short positions at the pressure level [7].