蛋白数据日报-20260202

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply of Brazilian soybeans is expected to be sufficient, but logistics congestion may cause the selling pressure on Brazilian soybean discounts to be postponed. The production of Argentine soybeans may be affected by dry conditions, but rainfall is expected to recover in the next two weeks. [10] - The demand for soymeal shows a seasonal decline. The profit of self - breeding and self - raising in the pig industry has turned positive, with high pig inventory and slow capacity reduction. The far - month demand for soymeal is expected to shrink under the influence of capacity adjustment and policy control. [10] - Domestic soybeans and soymeal are in a seasonal de - stocking period, and the current inventory is still at a high level. The number of days of soymeal inventory in feed enterprises has increased. [10] - In the short term, the unilateral price of soymeal is expected to have limited rebound and will maintain a weak and volatile trend later. The domestic supply - demand situation in the first quarter is expected to be loose, the spot basis is expected to weaken, and M3 - M5 is expected to show a reverse spread. [10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Spot Basis Data - On January 30th, the basis of 43% soymeal spot in Dalian was 453, up 15; in Rizhao and Zhangjiagang it was 373, up 15; in Tianjin it was 413, up 35; in Dongguan it was 353, up 35; in Zhanjiang it was 383, up 35; in Fangcheng it was 373. The basis of rapeseed meal spot in Guangdong was 105, down 42. [4] - M3 - M2 was 294, unchanged; RM5 - 9 was - 19, down 11. [4] b. Inventory Data - Domestic soybeans and soymeal are in a seasonal de - stocking period, but the current inventory is still at a high level, and the number of days of soymeal inventory in feed enterprises has increased. [10] c. International Supply Data - As of January 24th, the harvesting progress of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season was 6.6%, up 2.3% from last week and 3.2% faster than the same period last year. The pre - sale progress of new Brazilian soybeans is about 31%, slower than the same period last year. The USDA estimates the Brazilian soybean output in the 2025/26 season to reach 178 million tons. [10] - As of January 21st, the proportion of good - rated soybeans in Argentina in the 2025/26 season was 38% (last week's value was 61%, last year's same - period value was 26%), and rainfall is expected to recover in the next two weeks. [10] d. Domestic Demand Data - The profit of self - breeding and self - raising in the pig industry has turned positive, with high pig inventory and slow capacity reduction. Under the influence of capacity adjustment and policy control, the far - month demand for soymeal is expected to shrink. The pre - holiday procurement of soymeal is over, the far - month trading volume has increased, and the delivery performance is good. [10]