航运衍生品数据日报-20260202

Group 1: Shipping Derivatives Data - The present values of Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (SCFI), China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI), SCFI - US West, SCFIS - US West, SCFI - US East, SCFI - Northwest Europe, SCFIS - Northwest Europe, and SCFI - Mediterranean are 1317, 1176, 1867, 1294, 2605, 1418, 1859, and 2424 respectively [4]. - The previous values of these indices are 1458, 1209, 2084, 1305, 2896, 1595, 1954, and 2756 respectively [4]. - The percentage changes of these indices are -9.68%, -2.74%, -10.41%, -0.84%, -10.05%, -11.10%, -4.86%, and -12.05% respectively [4]. Group 2: Market News and Geopolitical Situation - Mixed signals from the US and Iran have led to a slight decline in the market's probability prediction of a military strike. Iranian senior officials said efforts to start negotiations with the US are making progress [5]. - According to the Wall Street Journal, the possibility of the US launching an air strike on Iran in the near term is low as the US is still moving air - defense capabilities to the region [5]. - The USS Abraham Lincoln has left the Gulf of Oman and entered the Indian Ocean as part of a retreat [5]. Group 3: EC (European Container) Market - The EC market shows a volatile trend. The spot prices are in a pre - holiday decline, with different adjustments among alliances [6]. - In the GEMINI alliance, Maersk's opening price in WK6 dropped to 2000 - 2100 dollars/FEU and further to 1995 dollars/FEU in WK7, while Hapag - Lloyd maintained 2300 - 2500 dollars/FEU in WK6 and remained stable in WK7 [6]. - In the OA alliance, the price in WK6 slightly fell to around 2500 dollars/FBU, and in WK7, COSCO Shipping in North China ports adjusted to 2200 - 2300 dollars/FBU, with East China ports likely to follow [6]. - In the PA alliance, the price fluctuated between 2200 - 2400 dollars/FEU in WK6, and in WK7, influenced by ONE's WK8 list price of 2000 dollars/FEU, the average price approached 2000 dollars/FEU, with some special prices at 1800 dollars/FEU [6]. - MSC also slightly lowered its prices from WK6 to WK7. Affected by the pre - holiday cargo volume vacuum, all alliances' quotes showed a downward trend [6]. Group 4: Market Analysis and Strategy - This week, the EC market is in a "differentiated pattern under the game between expectation and reality", with a misalignment between futures and spot performance. Futures are supported by multiple expectations and prices have risen, while the spot market remains weak [7]. - The core logic for the futures rise is the rush - shipping expectation due to the cancellation of photovoltaic tax rebates, geopolitical conflicts, and bad weather in Northwest Europe. The spot market is affected by pre - holiday low cargo volume and price cuts by shipping companies [7]. - In the medium and long - term, there is a risk of over - capacity. New ships will be delivered in 2026, and the resumption of the Red Sea route will release hidden capacity, suppressing the freight rate center [7]. - The strategy suggests caution, not chasing high prices. For hedging, it is advisable to hold positions, and for arbitrage, gradually reduce positions. Key factors to track include shipping companies' price increases, Red Sea route resumption signals, and cargo volume data [7]. - In the short - term, the cost - effectiveness of short - selling has decreased. It is recommended to focus on going long on the 06 contract at low levels and short - selling the off - season 10 contract on rebounds [8].