迪克森科技：前景不明朗

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for Dixon Technology [4]. Core Insights - The outlook for Dixon Technology remains uncertain due to weak demand, high channel inventory, and delays in key approvals [4]. - The company's Q3 revenue decreased by 28% quarter-on-quarter, falling short of market expectations by 9% [5]. - Smartphone sales have been significantly impacted by high storage chip prices, with Q3 shipments at 6.9 million units and Q4 guidance of 7-7.5 million units [5]. - The company is making progress in its backward integration plans, with expected certifications for display modules and casings [4][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q3 FY2026 revenue was ₹106.7 billion, a 28% decrease quarter-on-quarter, and below market consensus [5]. - EBITDA was ₹4.1 billion, up 6% year-on-year but down 26% quarter-on-quarter, aligning with expectations [5]. - Net profit was inflated due to one-time fair value gains [5]. Smartphone Sales - Q3 shipments were 6.9 million units, with a total FY2026 shipment forecast of approximately 34 million units, revised down from 40 million [5]. - Management remains confident about the Vivo joint venture obtaining PN3 certification, but there are risks for FY2027 shipments [5]. Backward Integration - The company has received ECMS certification for camera modules and optical modules, with display modules and casings expected soon [5]. - A pilot production plan for display modules is set to start in June, targeting production of 2 million notebook and 24 million smartphone modules [5]. Catalysts for Growth - New business expansions and customer acquisitions are expected to drive excess growth [6]. - Moving upstream in the value chain and strengthening backward integration are seen as positive factors [6].