长江期货贵金属周报：鹰派预期升温，价格大幅回调-20260202

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market's hawkish expectations have increased after Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the new Chairman of the Federal Reserve, leading to a decline in precious metal prices. The Fed's January interest - rate meeting kept rates unchanged, the US employment situation has slowed, and Powell indicated that changing economic risks provide more reasons for rate cuts. After Warsh's nomination, the market still expects two rate cuts this year, but there may be a restart of balance - sheet reduction. The US economic data is trending weaker, and there are concerns about the US fiscal situation and the Fed's independence. Central bank gold purchases and de - dollarization remain unchanged. Driven by industrial demand, the silver spot market remains tight, and the mid - term price centers of gold and silver are moving up. The platinum and palladium lease rates remain high, and it is expected that the prices of platinum and palladium will have support at the bottom. It is recommended to pay attention to the US January non - farm payroll data to be released on Friday [10]. - It is expected that the prices will continue to fluctuate and adjust. It is recommended to build positions at low levels after the prices have fully corrected [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Due to the increased hawkish expectations after the new Fed Chairman Warsh took office, the price of gold has corrected. As of last Friday, the price of US gold closed at $4,908 per ounce, a weekly decline of 1.5%. The upper resistance level is $5,060, and the lower support level is $4,750 [6]. - Due to the increased hawkish expectations after the new Fed Chairman Warsh took office, the price of silver has significantly corrected. As of last Friday, the weekly decline was 17.4%, and it closed at $85.3 per ounce. The lower support level is $78, and the upper resistance level is $90 [9]. 2. Weekly Viewpoint - Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as the new Fed Chairman has led to increased hawkish expectations in the market, causing a correction in precious metal prices. The Fed's January interest - rate meeting kept rates unchanged, the US employment situation has slowed, and Powell said that changing economic risks give the Fed more reasons to cut rates. After Warsh's nomination, the market still expects two rate cuts this year, but there may be a restart of balance - sheet reduction. The US economic data is trending weaker, and there are concerns about the US fiscal situation and the Fed's independence. Central bank gold purchases and de - dollarization remain unchanged. Driven by industrial demand, the silver spot market remains tight, and the mid - term price centers of gold and silver are moving up. The platinum and palladium lease rates remain high, and it is expected that the prices of platinum and palladium will have support at the bottom. It is recommended to pay attention to the US January non - farm payroll data to be released on Friday [10]. - It is expected that the prices will continue to fluctuate and adjust. It is recommended to build positions at low levels after the prices have fully corrected [11]. 3. Overseas Macroeconomic Indicators - The report presents data on the US dollar index, euro - US dollar exchange rate, pound - US dollar exchange rate, real interest rates (10 - year TIPS yield), US Treasury bond yields (10 - year and 2 - year), inflation expectations (10Y), and the Fed's balance - sheet size and its weekly changes, as well as the WTI crude oil futures price trend [14][16][20]. 4. Important Economic Data of the Week - The US December PPI annual rate was 3%, with an expected value of 2.7% and a previous value of 3%. The number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending January 24 was 209,000, with an expected value of 205,000 and a previous value of 200,000 [22]. 5. Important Macroeconomic Events and Policies of the Week - US President Trump announced that he will appoint Kevin Warsh to replace Powell as the new Fed Chairman. Warsh advocates for both balance - sheet reduction and rate cuts. He is more dovish than the current Chairman Powell but more hawkish than the previous favorite candidate Hassett. Before and after Warsh's nomination, the market's expectations for Fed rate cuts have changed little. Currently, it is still expected that the next rate cut will be in June and there will be two rate cuts throughout the year, which may be due to Warsh's relatively neutral and "flexible" policy stance [23]. - Tensions in the Middle East and investors' concerns about potential supply disruptions have boosted oil prices. US President Trump has reiterated threats against Iran [23]. 6. Inventory - This week, the COMEX gold inventory decreased by 12,307.14 kilograms to 1,111,906.47 kilograms, and the SHFE gold inventory increased by 1,020 kilograms to 103,029 kilograms. The COMEX silver inventory decreased by 327,770.44 kilograms to 12,624,500.29 kilograms, and the SHFE silver inventory decreased by 126,022 kilograms to 455,068 kilograms [12][27]. 7. Fund Holdings - As of January 27, the net long position of the gold CFTC speculative fund was 206,435 contracts, a decrease of 17,493 contracts from last week. The net long position of the silver CFTC speculative fund was 23,999 contracts, a decrease of 616 contracts from last week [12][32]. 8. Key Points to Watch This Week - On Monday, February 2, at 23:00, the US January ISM manufacturing PMI will be released. - On Wednesday, February 4, at 21:15, the US January ADP employment change will be released. - On Friday, February 6, at 21:30, the US January non - farm payroll change (seasonally adjusted) and the US January unemployment rate will be released [34].