异动点评：美科技股退潮与联储紧缩预期升温，贵金属及有色板块大幅回落，锡价跌停

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, tin prices are vulnerable to market sentiment, geopolitical situations, and short - term supply - demand changes, with intensified fluctuations and high risks. It's recommended that investors participate cautiously to avoid sharp volatility. In the long - term, the core support for the upward shift of tin prices remains solid, and it's advisable to wait for market sentiment to stabilize or prices to have a reasonable correction and then adopt a strategy of going long on dips. [7][8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - Affected by the retreat of US technology stocks and the rising expectation of Fed tightening, tin prices dropped significantly from the night session on January 29th. As of February 2nd, the main contract of Shanghai tin hit the 11% daily limit down to 392,650 yuan/ton. [1] 3.2 Driving Factors 3.2.1 Impact of US Technology Stocks and Fed Expectations - Microsoft's Q4 2025 earnings report showed that huge capital expenditures in AI infrastructure, model training, and cloud services did not lead to significant revenue growth. This concern hit the high - valuation logic of technology stocks, especially AI concept stocks. Microsoft's stock price plunged over 10% on January 30th, with a single - day market value evaporation of about $420 billion. [2] - The news that Kevin Warsh will be nominated as the next Fed Chairman on January 29th, and the official announcement by Trump on January 30th. Warsh is a "hawk" on monetary policy. The expectation of his taking office led to the anticipation of accelerated global dollar liquidity tightening, causing a sell - off in precious metals and non - ferrous metals. [3] 3.2.2 Supply Recovery in Myanmar - From November to December 2025, China's imports of tin ore and concentrates from Myanmar increased significantly year - on - year. In November, imports were 7,190.21 physical tons (about 1,636.05 metal tons), with a month - on - month increase of 89.94% and a year - on - year increase of 92.16%. In December, imports were 6,205.43 physical tons (1,342.37 metal tons), a 17.95% month - on - month decrease but a 183.32% year - on - year increase. [5] - The recovery of Myanmar's supply eased the tight domestic tin ore supply, and the processing fees of smelters increased. As of February 2nd, the processing fee of 40% tin concentrates in Yunnan rose to 14,000 yuan/ton, a monthly increase of 2,000 yuan/ton; the processing fee of 60% tin concentrates in Guangxi, Hunan, and Jiangxi also rose to 10,000 yuan/ton, a monthly increase of 2,000 yuan/ton. [6] 3.3 Future Outlook - In the long - term, the upward shift of tin prices is supported by three factors: long - term rigid constraints on the supply side (low global tin ore reserve - to - production ratio, supply disruptions in major producing areas, limited new large - scale mining projects, and rising mining costs); profound changes in the demand structure (the "AI arms race" boosting the demand for high - end semiconductor packaging and electronic soldering materials); and the re - evaluation of the strategic value of tin due to global technological competition and industrial chain security concerns. [7]