燃气Ⅱ行业跟踪周报：寒潮退潮，美气价格高位回落，欧洲、国内气价相对平稳-20260202

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the gas industry [1] Core Insights - The report highlights a significant drop in US gas prices due to the retreat of cold weather, while European and domestic gas prices remain relatively stable [4][9] - It emphasizes the ongoing supply-demand dynamics, with US gas storage levels showing a year-on-year increase of 9.8% despite a week-on-week decrease of 2420 billion cubic feet [16] - The report notes that domestic gas prices have increased by 1.3% week-on-week, driven by rising import prices [26] Price Tracking - As of January 30, 2026, the week-on-week changes in gas prices are as follows: US HH down 74.4%, European TTF up 0.9%, East Asia JKM up 2.1%, China LNG ex-factory price up 1.3%, and China LNG CIF price up 6.5% [4][9] - The report provides detailed price comparisons, indicating that the domestic LNG ex-factory price is 4045 RMB/ton, while the CIF price is 4433 RMB/ton [14] Supply and Demand Analysis - The report indicates that European gas consumption for the first ten months of 2025 was 349.5 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 4.6% [17] - It also notes that European gas supply decreased by 6.9% week-on-week, with a significant drop in supply from inventory [17] - Domestic gas consumption for 2025 is projected to be 433.2 billion cubic meters, with production increasing by 6.3% year-on-year [26] Pricing Mechanism Progress - The report states that 68% of cities have implemented residential pricing adjustments, with an average increase of 0.22 RMB/cubic meter [40] - It highlights that there is still a 10% room for price adjustment in the gas distribution sector [40] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies that can optimize costs and benefit from the ongoing pricing adjustments, such as Xin'ao Energy, China Resources Gas, and Kunlun Energy [52] - It suggests monitoring companies with quality long-term contracts and flexible scheduling capabilities, such as Jiufeng Energy and Xin'ao Shares [52] - The report emphasizes the importance of energy independence and recommends companies with gas production capabilities like Shouhua Gas [52]