金融产品深度报告20260202：纳斯达克100ETF，1月复盘与2月展望

Market Performance - The Nasdaq 100 index increased by 1.20% in January 2026, with a total trading volume of approximately $49.061 billion[10] - The index's P/E ratio (PE-TTM) as of January 30, 2026, was 36.15, placing it at the 89.0% historical percentile since 2011, indicating a relatively high valuation[17] - The risk level of the Nasdaq 100 index rose to 75.97 by January 30, 2026, up from 65.29 at the end of December 2025[21] Macro and Policy Analysis - The market faced a tug-of-war between "falling inflation" and "cost stickiness," with CPI showing a decline while core PPI remained stubbornly high, complicating the inflation narrative[24] - Political risks surged mid-January, particularly due to the investigation of Fed Chair Powell and Trump's geopolitical comments, leading to significant market volatility[11] - By the end of January, the nomination of hawkish Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair raised concerns about the future independence of monetary policy, contributing to market declines[49] Industry Dynamics - The AI and semiconductor sectors provided a strong earnings foundation, with companies like TSMC reporting better-than-expected results, reinforcing positive market sentiment[50] - Despite strong individual company performances, macroeconomic policy risks overshadowed these positives, indicating that industry benefits were insufficient to alter the overall market trend[51] Key Events Outlook - February 2026 will be critical for the Nasdaq 100 index, with key data releases (non-farm payrolls and CPI) expected to validate or adjust interest rate expectations[6] - The earnings reports from major tech companies will serve as a crucial test for their profitability and AI capital expenditure trends, impacting market valuations significantly[6]