美联储暂停降息，国内PMI指数小幅回落

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, domestic commodities in China first rose and then fell. Industrial products slightly declined after the rise, while agricultural products slightly increased. At the beginning of the week, supported by multiple positive factors, precious metals and non - ferrous metals rose significantly, driving the collective rise of commodities. However, with the confirmation of the nominee for the Fed Chair (the final candidate is more hawkish than expected), the market adjusted significantly, with precious metals crashing and non - ferrous metals falling sharply [3]. - The Fed suspended rate cuts as scheduled on January 28, maintaining the federal funds rate in the 3.50% - 3.75% range. The market expects a more than 60% probability of two 25 - basis - point rate cuts by the end of 2026. The new Fed Chair nominee may affect future rate - cut expectations. Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair, whose "hawkish" background may support the US dollar and put pressure on stocks, bonds, and precious metals [4]. - Japan's Prime Minister warned against currency speculation, and the yen continued to rise. The market speculated about US - Japan joint intervention in the foreign exchange market, and the Japanese bond market also fluctuated [4]. - In January, China's manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs both declined, and economic activities slowed down compared with the previous month. However, production remained in expansion, and positive demand - side policies provided a foundation for the economy in the first quarter. In 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above a designated size increased by 0.6% year - on - year, reversing the three - year decline. The 2026 tax reform aims to balance the central - local fiscal relationship and optimize the tax structure, which may relieve local debt risks [5]. - Commodity volatility is rising, and the strength of different sectors may change. The confirmation of the Fed Chair nominee may lead to a rebound in the US dollar index, suppressing precious metals and non - ferrous metals. China's policies to expand domestic demand may benefit some commodities, and geopolitical and weather factors may support energy prices [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Main Views - Market Performance: This week, domestic commodities first rose and then fell. Industrial products slightly declined, and agricultural products slightly increased. The market adjusted after the confirmation of the Fed Chair nominee [3]. - Overseas Factors: The Fed suspended rate cuts, and the market expects rate cuts by the end of 2026. Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair, and Japan's currency and bond markets fluctuated [4]. - Domestic Factors: In January, China's manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs declined. In 2025, industrial profits increased, and the 2026 tax reform may relieve local debt risks [5]. - Commodity Views: Commodity volatility is rising, and sector strength may change due to factors such as the Fed Chair nominee, China's policies, and geopolitical and weather factors [6] PART TWO: Overseas Situation Analysis - US Fed Policy: The Fed suspended rate cuts on January 28, maintaining the federal funds rate in the 3.50% - 3.75% range. The market expects a more than 60% probability of two 25 - basis - point rate cuts by the end of 2026 [4]. - Nominee for Fed Chair: Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair. Warsh has a "hawkish" background, and his policies may support the US dollar and put pressure on stocks, bonds, and precious metals [4]. - Japan's Situation: Japan's Prime Minister warned against currency speculation, and the yen continued to rise. The market speculated about US - Japan joint intervention in the foreign exchange market, and the Japanese bond market also fluctuated [4] PART THREE: Domestic Situation Analysis - PMI Data: In January, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, a 0.8 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, also a 0.8 - percentage - point decrease. Economic activities slowed down, but production remained in expansion [5][26]. - Industrial Profits: In 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above a designated size was 73982 billion yuan, a 0.6% year - on - year increase, reversing the three - year decline [5][29]. - Tax Reform: The 2026 tax reform aims to balance the central - local fiscal relationship and optimize the tax structure, which may relieve local debt risks [5] PART FOUR: High - Frequency Data Tracking - Industrial开工率: The report shows the开工率 data of the polyester industry chain and the blast furnace开工率 in China, but specific trends and analyses are not detailed in the summary [36]. - Commodity Prices: The report shows the price data of fruits, agricultural products, and pork, but specific trends and analyses are not detailed in the summary [49]