烧碱周报：液氯价格下跌，盘面企稳反弹-20260202

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is "oscillating", with short - term disk having no obvious driver and expected to be mainly oscillating [3] Core View - This week, the maintenance of caustic soda decreased, production increased, but the average capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises decreased. Alumina start - up declined, non - aluminum demand was weak, and the inventory of some sample enterprises increased. The cost of raw materials decreased, energy cost remained flat, and the overall chlor - alkali profit declined. The spot price was at a low level, and the disk price rebounded slightly. The short - term market is expected to be mainly oscillating [3][6] Summary by Directory PART ONE: Main Views and Strategy Overview - Supply: Neutral. This week, maintenance decreased and production increased by 0.3 tons to 850,000 tons. The average capacity utilization rate of caustic soda sample enterprises was 87.4%, a 0.3% week - on - week decrease. Regionally, the chlor - alkali loads in North, Central, and East China decreased, while the load in Southwest Sichuan increased [3] - Demand: Neutral. Alumina start - up declined, non - aluminum demand was weak. The capacity utilization rate of the viscose staple fiber industry was 88.43%, a 3.01% week - on - week increase. The comprehensive start - up rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 60.09%, a 0.72% week - on - week decrease [3] - Inventory: Bearish. The factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with 200,000 tons or more was 520,300 wet tons, a 2.11% week - on - week increase and a 110.11% year - on - year increase. The storage ratio of national liquid caustic soda sample enterprises was 30.02%, a 1.07% week - on - week increase. The storage ratios in North, Northwest, Central, East, South, Southwest, and Northeast China increased week - on - week. The sample warehouse inventory in Central China decreased by 4.76%, and that in East China decreased by 15.71% [3] - Basis: Neutral. The current basis of the main contract is around - 37, with the disk price at a premium [3] - Profit: Bearish. This week, the raw material cost decreased, energy cost remained flat, the theoretical production cost of caustic soda decreased slightly, the price of caustic soda continued to decline, the weekly average price of liquid chlorine remained stable, and the overall chlor - alkali profit declined. The price of liquid chlorine in Shandong increased to 100 yuan/ton [3] - Valuation: Bullish. The spot price is at a low level, the absolute disk price is low, and the main contract is at a slight premium [3] - Macro Policy: Neutral. There is no relevant policy for the time being [3] - Investment View: The short - term disk has no obvious driver and is expected to be mainly oscillating [3] - Trading Strategy: No unilateral or arbitrage strategies are recommended for the time being [3] PART TWO: Review of Futures and Spot Market - This week, the Shandong spot price fell, and the futures oscillated. The disk price rebounded slightly. On the supply side, the price of liquid chlorine dropped, the comprehensive chlor - alkali profit was in the red, there was less maintenance, and the overall supply was high. On the demand side, it was the seasonal off - peak season, downstream demand was for rigid needs, traders' enthusiasm for stockpiling was weak, and export transactions were average. Shandong faced great inventory accumulation pressure, the spot price was not yet stable. The current trading was a game around cost, and the price of caustic soda was prone to fluctuations. It is recommended that investors stay on the sidelines [6] - The total open interest increased, and the far - month contracts increased their positions [25] PART THREE: Fundamental Data of Caustic Soda Supply and Demand - Electricity Price: Due to the tight supply of coal, the electricity price increased [33] - Upstream Production: The start - up remained at a high level, and inventory was destocked [35] - Main Production Area Output: Maintenance in North China decreased, and production increased [38] - Chlor - alkali Comprehensive Profit: The chlor - alkali comprehensive profit decreased [39] - Downstream Price: The price of alumina declined, and non - aluminum prices were weak [42] - Alumina: The start - up of alumina recovered, and inventory was accumulated. The supply - demand balance of alumina was restored, port inventory of bauxite increased, alumina profit was poor but there was no significant production cut, and the supply of bauxite was in surplus [54][62] - Non - aluminum Demand: The non - aluminum industry entered the seasonal off - peak season, and the start - up declined. The printing and dyeing market was weak, and the short - term market recovery was weak [63][64] - Liquid Chlorine Downstream: The start - up rate rebounded [71]