日度策略参考-20260202

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short term, although external disturbances intensify, domestic capital drives the stock index to maintain strong resilience, with limited space for short - term shock adjustment. Long - term investors can gradually build long positions. - The asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial for bond futures, but the central bank warns of interest rate risks in the short term. Pay attention to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision. - Market risk - aversion sentiment has significantly increased, leading to sharp fluctuations in prices of various commodities such as copper, aluminum, nickel, etc. Different commodities have different trends based on their own fundamentals and external factors [1]. 3. Summary by Related Categories Stock Index - Short - term: Despite increased external disturbances, domestic capital drives the stock index to remain resilient, with limited shock adjustment space. - Long - term: Long - term investors can take this opportunity to gradually build long positions [1]. Bond Futures - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but the central bank warns of short - term interest rate risks. Pay attention to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision [1]. Metals Copper - Market risk - aversion sentiment has increased, and after a sharp rise in copper prices, market sentiment amplifies the fluctuation range, causing intensified price fluctuations. Pay attention to Kevin Warsh's statement [1]. Aluminum - Limited industry drive and increased macro risk - aversion sentiment have caused a sharp decline in aluminum prices. Pay attention to the recovery of market sentiment [1]. Alumina - Supply exceeds demand in the domestic alumina industry, with a weak industrial outlook and price pressure. However, the current price is near the cost line, and prices are expected to fluctuate [1]. Zinc - The cost center of the zinc fundamentals is stabilizing. The North American cold wave has affected energy prices, which is unfavorable for overseas smelter restart. There are expectations of fundamental improvement. Under the current risk - aversion sentiment, zinc prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. Nickel - In the short term, nickel prices fluctuate weakly, affected by the resonance of the non - ferrous metal sector. Pay attention to Indonesian policies and macro - sentiment. In the medium - to - long - term, high global nickel inventories may still have a suppressing effect. It is recommended to operate in the short term and wait for low - buying opportunities [1]. Stainless Steel - The raw material nickel - iron price continues to rise, but the spot trading of stainless steel is weak, and the social inventory has slightly increased. Steel mills' maintenance and production cuts in February have increased. Pay attention to the actual production of steel mills. With raw material support and cooling macro - sentiment, stainless - steel futures fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to operate in the short term and control risks [1]. Tin - Short - term market risk - aversion sentiment has increased, causing large fluctuations in tin prices. Considering the fragile tin supply fundamentals, after a full correction, it is recommended to pay attention to low - buying opportunities from a medium - to - long - term perspective [1]. Precious Metals - Trump's nomination of a hawkish candidate for the new Fed chairman has boosted the US dollar index, putting pressure on precious metals prices. Panic selling has led to a sharp decline. In the short term, the market may continue to release risks, but the space for further sharp declines is relatively limited. It is recommended to wait and see for now [1]. Platinum and Palladium - Short - term: Panic selling has caused sharp declines in platinum and palladium prices. The market may continue to release risks, with prices expected to open sharply lower and fluctuate strongly. It is recommended to wait and see. - Medium - to - long - term: There are differences in the supply - demand prospects of platinum and palladium. There is a supply - demand gap for platinum, while palladium tends to have a loose supply. The [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy can continue to be followed [1]. Industrial Silicon - Northwest production increases, while southwest production decreases. The production schedules of polysilicon and organic silicon in December have declined [1]. Polysilicon - In the new - energy vehicle off - season, energy - storage demand is strong, and there is battery export rush. After a large increase, there is a need for a correction [1]. Ferrous Metals Rebar - The expectation is strong, but the spot is weak. The sentiment transmission to the spot is not smooth, and the upward momentum is insufficient. Unilateral long positions should be closed and wait and see. Participate in cash - and - carry arbitrage positions [1]. Hot - Rolled Coil - High production and high inventory suppress price increases. The transmission of futures price increases to the spot is not smooth. Unilateral long positions should be closed and wait and see. Participate in cash - and - carry arbitrage positions [1]. Iron Ore - There is obvious upward pressure on iron ore. It is not recommended to chase long at this position [1]. Coke and Coking Coal - The market is pessimistic about the coking coal 05 contract. After the first round of coke price increase was shelved, short - sellers increased positions. The coking coal 05 contract has broken through important supports. The previous low - buying strategy may need to be changed. The logic for coke is the same as that for coking coal [1]. Agricultural Products Palm Oil - The purchasing rhythm of major consumer countries has started, and there is a possibility of production reduction and inventory reduction in the origin. Coupled with the potential fermentation of the biodiesel theme, it is expected to fluctuate strongly [1]. Soybean Oil - The domestic soybean oil fundamentals are strong, combined with the rebound of US soybeans and positive news about US biodiesel. It is recommended to go long [1]. Rapeseed Oil - Sino - Canadian relations are still variable under US influence, and the continuous import of Canadian rapeseed is blocked. The short - term supply contradiction is not significantly alleviated. Positive news about US biodiesel benefits the oil market [1]. Cotton - There is a strong expectation of a domestic new - crop harvest, and the cotton purchase price supports lint costs. The downstream operating rate is low, but the yarn mill inventory is not high, with rigid replenishment demand. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "having support but no driver". Pay attention to relevant factors such as the central government's No. 1 Document in the first quarter of next year [1]. Sugar - There is a global surplus of sugar, and the domestic new - crop supply has increased. The short - selling consensus is relatively consistent. If the futures price continues to fall, there is strong cost support below. However, the short - term fundamentals lack continuous drivers. Pay attention to changes in the capital situation [1]. Grains - Pre - festival stocking is nearly over, the regional price difference is low, and the domestic grain reserve inventory is sufficient. Pre - festival funds are taking profits, and the upward momentum of the futures price is insufficient. It is expected to fluctuate and correct before the festival [1]. Soybeans - There is an expectation of rainfall return in the Argentine production area in February, and the total supply of Brazilian soybeans is sufficient. Logistics congestion in Brazil may postpone the selling pressure of the basis. The domestic soybean - purchasing and crushing margin is at a high level. The short - term unilateral upward expectation is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly later [1]. Pulp and Logs Pulp - There are disturbances on the supply side, but the demand side weakens after restocking. It is recommended to wait and see in the face of large fluctuations in commodity sentiment [1]. Logs - The spot price of logs has increased, the log arrival volume in February is expected to decline, and the overseas quotation is expected to rise. The futures price has upward driving force [1]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, the Middle East geopolitical situation has heated up, and the US cold wave has increased energy demand [1]. Fuel Oil - Follows crude oil, and the short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent [1]. Asphalt - The "14th Five - Year Plan" construction rush demand is likely to be falsified, the supply of raw material (Maya crude oil) is sufficient, and the asphalt profit is high [1]. BR Rubber - The cost of raw material (butadiene) has strong support, and there are expectations of increased exports in the long - term. Recently, private butadiene - rubber plant profits have been severely lost, and there are expectations of maintenance and production reduction. The short - term downstream negative feedback is gradually realized. Butadiene is in the process of inventory reduction, and high butadiene - rubber inventory is a potential negative factor. The short - term futures price is expected to fluctuate widely and correct, and there is an upward expectation in the long - term [1]. PTA and Short - Fiber - The PX market is strong, driving up chemical products. There has been a large inflow of funds into the chemical sector. The polyester sector has led the rise in the chemical industry. Domestic PTA production has continued to increase, with no new production capacity. PTA maintains a high operating rate, and domestic demand has declined. The short - fiber price continues to closely follow the cost [1]. Ethylene Glycol - After a long - term slump, the overseas ethylene - glycol price has rebounded. The reduction of ethylene - glycol exports from the Middle East has boosted market confidence. A 180 - million - ton ethylene - glycol plant in Jiangsu plans to switch a 90 - million - ton EG production line to ethylene production in mid - February. Market speculative demand has significantly increased [1]. Styrene - News of the shutdown of a styrene plant in the Middle East has spread. As the supply - demand fundamentals of styrene gradually improve, the styrene futures price has quickly rebounded. The Asian styrene market has stabilized, and the styrene - benzene price difference has widened. The inventory of styrene has decreased, alleviating the overall inventory pressure [1]. Methanol - Affected by the Iranian situation, the expected future import will decrease, but the downstream negative feedback is obvious. The downstream MTO leading device has stopped, and some enterprises have reduced production, but Fude will restart on January 25th. The Iranian situation has eased, but risks cannot be completely ruled out. Cold air has increased freight costs in the inland area, and northwest enterprises have large inventory - clearing pressure and are selling at reduced prices [1]. PE - The Zhong'an United full - density device has stopped, and the linear production ratio has decreased. There are risks of rising crude oil prices due to intensified geopolitical conflicts [1]. PVC - Global production capacity expansion in 2026 is limited, with an optimistic future expectation. The current fundamentals are poor. The export tax rebate has been cancelled, and there may be a rush to export. Differential electricity prices in the northwest region are expected to be implemented, forcing out inefficient PVC production capacity [1]. PG - The March CP is expected to decline compared with February. The Middle East geopolitical conflict has cooled down, and the short - term risk premium has decreased. The driving logic of the overseas cold wave is gradually weakening, and the futures price is expected to weaken, with the basis expected to widen. The domestic PDH operating rate has declined, and the profit is expected to seasonally recover. The global civilian combustion demand is stable, but the overseas olefin blending demand for MTBE has declined seasonally. The short - term demand side is bearish, suppressing the upward movement of the futures price. Be vigilant against the resurgence of the Middle East geopolitical situation [1]. Shipping Container Shipping on the European Route - Pre - festival freight rates have peaked and declined. Airlines are still cautious about trial resumption of flights. Airlines expect a strong willingness to stop the price decline and increase prices after the off - season in March [1].