每日投资策略-20260202

Group 1: Macro Commentary - The manufacturing PMI in China has shown a decline, indicating weaker demand, with new orders and export orders decreasing [5] - Domestic and external demand weakness is expected to slow growth momentum, prompting potential policy easing before and after the "Two Sessions" [5] - GDP growth is projected to decrease from 5% in 2025 to 4.6% in 2026, with expectations of RRR and LPR cuts [5] Group 2: Industry Commentary - Apple reported FY1Q26 earnings that exceeded expectations, with a 16% year-on-year revenue growth driven by strong iPhone sales and a 38% increase in the Chinese market [5] - The gross margin for Apple improved to 48.2%, and the guidance for FY2Q26 indicates a revenue growth of 13-16% despite supply constraints [5] - The technology sector is expected to benefit from Apple's product cycle and collaborations with Google AI, with companies like Luxshare Precision and BYD Electronics positioned for growth [5] Group 3: Company Commentary - Thermo Fisher reported a strong 4Q25 performance with a 7.2% year-on-year revenue growth, driven by demand from pharmaceutical clients [6] - The company expects a revenue growth of 3.9% to 5.9% for 2026, with adjusted EPS growth of 5.9% to 8.4% [6] - Recent acquisitions are expected to enhance Thermo Fisher's capabilities and drive future growth, with an anticipated adjusted EPS growth of 7-9% [7][8] Group 4: Company Forecasts - Zhengli's battery sales forecast for 2025 has been raised from 18.4 GWh to 19.6 GWh due to strong demand from new electric vehicle models [9] - The average selling price is expected to increase, leading to a projected net profit growth of 550% to 591 million yuan in 2025 [9] - For 2026, Zhengli's sales forecast remains at 30 GWh, with an 8% revenue increase expected, raising the net profit forecast to 1.36 billion yuan [9]