原周报（LG）：原木期货偏多看待-20260202

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report is bullish on log futures [1] 2. Core View of the Report - Log futures are likely to see an increase in the January foreign market quotation, and the shipping volume from New Zealand has decreased due to the Christmas effect, so they are expected to move upward [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - Supply: Bullish. From January 10 - 16, 2026, 4 ships with 120,000 cubic meters of logs departed from 12 ports in New Zealand, a decrease of 5 ships and 230,000 cubic meters week - on - week. Among them, 3 ships with 90,000 cubic meters were directly sent to China, a decrease of 5 ships and 210,000 cubic meters week - on - week. In the past 4 weeks, 35 ships with 1.28 million cubic meters of logs departed from 12 ports in New Zealand, a decrease of 17 ships and 690,000 cubic meters compared to the same period last month. Among them, 26 ships with 920,000 cubic meters were directly sent to China, a decrease of 13 ships and 520,000 cubic meters compared to the same period last month [4] - Demand: Neutral. From January 19 - 25, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs in 13 ports of 7 provinces in China was 61,800 cubic meters, a 0.3% increase from the previous week [4] - Inventory: Neutral. As of January 16, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.49 million cubic meters, a decrease of 80,000 cubic meters or 3% week - on - week [4] - Valuation: Neutral. The valuation of log futures is moderately low [4] - Investment View: Log futures are expected to move upward. The January foreign market quotation is likely to rise, and the shipping volume from New Zealand has decreased due to the Christmas effect [4] - Trading Strategy: Unilateral: Not provided; Arbitrage: Not provided; Risk focus: Domestic demand situation [4] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - Futures: Log futures broke through the oscillation range last week. The spot price of logs increased, and there was a bullish driver of decreased shipping volume on the supply - demand side [8] - Futures Position: As of January 30, 2025, the total position of log futures contracts was 16,758 lots, a 1.7% increase from the previous week; the position of the main log futures contract was 10,123 lots, a 12.8% decrease week - on - week [12] - Spot Price: As of January 30, 2025, in Shandong, the prices of 3.9 - meter small A/middle A/large A radiata pine were 680/740/850 yuan per cubic meter; the prices of 5.9 - meter small A/middle A/large A radiata pine were 710/770/940 yuan per cubic meter. In Jiangsu, the prices of 3.9 - meter small A/middle A/large A radiata pine were 720/780/800 yuan per cubic meter; the prices of 5.9 - meter small A/middle A/large A radiata pine were 780/820/840 yuan per cubic meter [17] 3.3 Log Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - Import Volume: In December 2025, the total import volume of Chinese coniferous logs was about 1.7654 million cubic meters, a 20.82% decrease month - on - month and a 22.45% decrease year - on - year. In 2025, the total import volume of Chinese coniferous logs was about 23.9187 million cubic meters, an 8.41% decrease year - on - year. In December 2025, the total import volume of coniferous logs from New Zealand was about 1.3048 million cubic meters, a 27.01% decrease month - on - month and a 13.02% decrease year - on - year. In 2025, the total import volume of coniferous logs from New Zealand was about 18.1002 million cubic meters, a 1.51% increase year - on - year [23] - Shipping Volume: In December 2025, about 52 ships of logs departed from New Zealand ports, a monthly increase of 3 ships, and the total shipping volume was about 1.914 million cubic meters, a 1.1% increase from 1.892 million cubic meters in October. From January 24 - 30, 2026, 8 ships with 300,000 cubic meters of logs departed from New Zealand ports, an increase of 1 ship and 30,000 cubic meters week - on - week. Among them, 7 ships with 270,000 cubic meters were directly sent to China, an increase of 2 ships and 60,000 cubic meters week - on - week. In the past 4 weeks, 28 ships with 1.06 million cubic meters of logs departed from New Zealand ports, a decrease of 24 ships and 880,000 cubic meters compared to the same period last month. Among them, 23 ships with 860,000 cubic meters were directly sent to China, a decrease of 14 ships and 480,000 cubic meters compared to the same period last month [29] - Inventory: As of January 16, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.57 million cubic meters, a decrease of 120,000 cubic meters or 4.46% week - on - week; the radiata pine inventory was 2.17 million cubic meters, a decrease of 120,000 cubic meters or 5.24% week - on - week; the North American timber inventory was 130,000 cubic meters, an increase of 10,000 cubic meters or 8.33% week - on - week; the spruce/fir inventory was 120,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 10,000 cubic meters. In terms of provincial inventory, as of January 16, the total coniferous log inventory in Shandong ports was 1.92 million cubic meters, a 2.04% decrease from the previous week; the total coniferous log inventory in Jiangsu ports was 410,820 cubic meters, a 15.18% decrease from the previous week [36] - Outbound Volume: From January 12 - 18, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs in 13 ports of 7 provinces in China was 61,600 cubic meters, a 7.13% increase from the previous week. Among them, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs in Shandong ports was 32,400 cubic meters, a 16.13% increase from the previous week; the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs in Jiangsu ports was 22,800 cubic meters, a 2.98% decrease from the previous week [40] - Processing: As of January 30, 2025, the wood square price in Shandong was 1,300 yuan per cubic meter, a 30 - yuan increase week - on - week; the wood square price in Jiangsu was 1,290 yuan per cubic meter, a 30 - yuan increase week - on - week. The processing profit in Shandong was - 38.5 yuan per cubic meter, a 30 - yuan increase week - on - week; the processing profit in Jiangsu was - 10 yuan per cubic meter, a 15 - yuan increase week - on - week [43]