【油脂周报（P&Y&OI)】：关注美国生柴、中加贸易以及中东地缘局势-20260202

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply: Soybean oil supply is tight, rapeseed oil supply tightness is easing, and palm oil supply in the producing areas is tight. The reasons include continuous production cuts in Malaysia, a potential shortage of imported soybeans from February to March, a significant reduction in the import cost of Canadian rapeseed after March 1st due to a 15% tax rate, and the expected entry of Australian seeds into commercial pressing [3]. - Demand: Demand is neutral. The stocking rhythms in India and China have significantly boosted the demand for oils and fats, but the substitution between varieties needs to be considered. The news that Indonesia postponed B50 has a negative impact on the far - month palm oil prices, but it may still be implemented this year. The overall quota of US biodiesel is expected to remain at the previous draft level or lower, and the cancellation of the penalty on imported feedstocks is more beneficial to the demand for Canadian rapeseed products. Attention should be paid to the implementation in February and March [3]. - Inventory: For palm oil, it is advisable to wait and see. Malaysia has a high palm oil inventory, while Indonesia's inventory is low. Overall, the total inventory in the producing areas is expected to reach an inflection point during the production - cut season. Domestic soybean oil inventory is gradually decreasing and will be tight in the first quarter. Rapeseed oil inventory is low due to supply shortages and is waiting for supply replenishment [3]. - Macro and Policy: The situation is bullish. International geopolitical tensions may lead to a rebound in crude oil prices, which in turn may cause a rebound in oil and fat prices from the biodiesel end. The US biodiesel policy is tentatively scheduled to be released in early March, and there are also reports that the court requires the EPA to release the final proposal in February, which is still a potential risk. Indonesia's B50 may be postponed, and funds may be the biggest problem. Attention should be paid to the price difference between crude oil and palm oil [3]. - Investment Viewpoint: In the short term, it is advisable to wait and see. The rise last week was driven by fundamental support, policy promotion, and the linkage with crude oil prices. However, the short - term increase was large, and it is currently facing the previous high point with significant resistance. Coupled with the sharp decline in gold and silver, which has tightened commodity liquidity, and the subsequent policy disturbances related to oils and fats, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [3]. - Trading Strategy: For single - side trading, wait and see. For arbitrage, conduct P5 - 9 positive spreads and OI5 - 9 positive spreads. Risks to be concerned about include rising crude oil prices, extreme weather impacts, unexpected production cuts in Malaysia, and the release of RVO [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - Analyzes the supply, demand, inventory, macro and policy factors of oils and fats, and provides corresponding investment viewpoints and trading strategies [3]. 3.2 Market Review - Presents the closing prices of the main oil and fat contracts and the trend of the agricultural product index, as well as the price differences between different contracts and varieties [5][9][14][15][16]. 3.3 Oils and Fats Supply - Demand Fundamentals - Southeast Asian Weather: Shows the precipitation and temperature forecasts and historical data in Southeast Asia [19][21][24]. - Indonesian Monthly Supply - Demand: Displays the production, domestic consumption, export volume, and ending inventory of Indonesian palm oil [33][37][38]. - Malaysian Monthly Supply - Demand: Presents the production, domestic consumption, export volume, and ending inventory of Malaysian palm oil [39][44]. - Indian Monthly Imports and International Soybean - Palm Oil Price Difference: Shows India's imports of palm oil, soybean oil, and sunflower oil, as well as the price difference between Argentine soybean oil and Malaysian palm oil [45][50]. - Domestic Palm Oil Import Profit and Supply - Demand: Displays China's palm oil import volume, trading volume, commercial inventory, import cost, and import profit [51][53][55]. - Weather and Soybean Production Situation: Presents the temperature and precipitation distribution in the soybean - producing areas of Argentina and Brazil, as well as the soybean planting progress and harvesting rate [63][66][72]. - US and Brazilian Export Situations: Shows the export volume and export sales volume of US soybeans, as well as the monthly export volume and CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans [77][81]. - Domestic Soybean and Soybean Oil Situation: Displays China's soybean arrival volume, soybean oil production, trading volume, and inventory [92]. - Origin Rapeseed Export and Domestic Arrival Situation: Shows the FOB price, export volume, and import profit of rapeseed, as well as the expected arrival volume of domestic rapeseed and the import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil [93][95]. - Domestic Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil Situation: Displays China's rapeseed crushing volume, rapeseed oil production,提货 volume, and inventory [102][103].