2026年1月PMI数据点评：产需两端双双走弱，压制制造业景气

Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.3%, indicating a contraction in the sector[2] - The production index decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 50.6%, attributed to seasonal factors ahead of the Spring Festival[2] - The new orders index fell by 1.6 percentage points to 49.2%, signaling insufficient effective demand[2] - New export orders decreased by 1.2 percentage points to 47.8%, reflecting accelerated contraction possibly due to changes in import policies in some regions[2] - Large enterprises' manufacturing PMI fell by 0.5 percentage points to 50.3%, while medium and small enterprises saw declines to 48.7% and 47.4% respectively[2] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index fell by 0.8 percentage points to 49.4%, returning to contraction territory[3] - The construction sector's index dropped significantly by 4.0 percentage points to 48.8%, impacted by seasonal and weather conditions[3] - The service sector's index slightly decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 49.5%, remaining below the neutral point[3] Overall Economic Outlook - The composite PMI output index fell by 0.9 percentage points to 49.8%, entering the contraction zone due to declines in both manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors[3] - Seasonal pressures from the upcoming Spring Festival are expected to further impact manufacturing activity in February[3] - Risks include potential seasonal factors not aligning with expectations and uncertainties in the external environment affecting exports[3]