集运指数欧线周报（EC）：目前交投冷清，低估值下驱动有限-20260202

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view of the report is "volatile", and the trading strategy is "bearish on rallies in the off - season", with a 6 - 10 positive spread arbitrage [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The current trading in the container shipping index is sluggish, and there is limited driving force under low valuations. The spot freight rate is affected by the pre - holiday decline and the differentiation adjustment of each alliance, showing a downward trend. Political and economic factors are neutral. The supply of shipping capacity shows a certain change trend, and the demand is bearish in the short and long term. The container shipping index shows a "differentiated pattern under the game between expectations and reality" this week, with the futures and spot markets showing different performances. In the medium and long term, the risk of over - capacity needs to be vigilant [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - Spot Freight Rate: It is in a pre - holiday decline, with each alliance making differentiated adjustments. For example, in the GEMINI alliance, Maersk's opening price in WK6 dropped to $2000 - 2100/FEU, and further decreased to $1995/FEU in WK7; Hapag - Lloyd maintained at $2300 - 2500/FEU in WK6 and remained stable in WK7. In the OA alliance, the price in WK6 dropped slightly to around $2500/FEU, and in WK7, COSCO Shipping in North China ports adjusted to $2200 - 2300/FEU. In the PA alliance, the price fluctuated between $2200 - 2400/FEU in WK6, and in WK7, affected by ONE's WK8 list price of $2000/FEU, the average price approached $2000/FEU, and some special prices for bulk cargo were $1800/FEU. MSC also slightly lowered its price following the market rhythm. Overall, affected by the pre - holiday cargo volume vacuum period, the quotes of each alliance showed a downward trend [3] - Political and Economic Factors: They are neutral. The US and Iran are still sending mixed signals, and the market's probability of predicting military strikes has slightly decreased. The Wall Street Journal reported that the possibility of the US launching an air strike on Iran in the near future is low, and the "Lincoln" aircraft carrier has left the Oman Sea and entered the Indian Ocean [3] - Shipping Capacity Supply: It shows different levels in different months. In November 2025, the weekly average shipping capacity was about 270,000 TEU; in December 2025, it was about 300,000 TEU; in January 2026, it was 313,000 - 321,000 TEU; in February 2026, it was 255,000 TEU; in March 2026, it was 280,000 TEU [3] - Demand: In the short term, approaching the Spring Festival, shippers have stocked up in advance, but there is no traditional pre - holiday small peak season. In the next two weeks (WK6 - WK7), the cargo volume will enter a pre - holiday vacuum period, and the pressure on shipping companies to attract cargo will increase. Only the rush - export of photovoltaic and other categories in the first quarter will provide a slight support for the cargo volume, mainly for pre - holiday replenishment. In the long term, in 2026, the demand in Europe and the US will be differentiated. European infrastructure and reconstruction may moderately boost the cargo volume, while the US inventory replenishment is delayed and has limited elasticity. Coupled with policy pressures such as the EU's anti - subsidy investigation, the global demand growth rate will slow down, and the growth rate of shipping capacity is higher than that of demand, resulting in an expanding supply - demand gap, and the demand side will continue to be under pressure to support freight rates [3] - Summary: This week, the EC shows a "differentiated pattern under the game between expectations and reality", with the futures and spot markets showing different performances. The futures market is supported by multiple expectations and has increased. The core logic lies in the rush - shipping expectation caused by the cancellation of photovoltaic tax refunds, which supports the contracts after April. Coupled with the escalation of geopolitical conflicts and the disturbance of extreme weather in Northwest Europe, it temporarily boosts the market sentiment. The spot market continues to be weak. The pre - holiday cargo volume enters a vacuum period, and shipping companies continue to reduce prices to attract cargo, resulting in an overall decline in freight rates. The SCFIS European line settlement index also decreased month - on - month. The weak supply - demand reality suppresses the near - month contracts. In the medium and long term, the risk of over - capacity needs to be vigilant. The concentrated delivery of new ships in 2026 and the resumption of the Red Sea route will release hidden shipping capacity and continuously suppress the freight rate center. The strategy should be cautious, not chasing high prices. Hedging should be held, and arbitrage positions can be gradually reduced. Key points to track include the implementation of shipping companies' price increase announcements, signals of the Red Sea route resumption, and cargo volume data, and control the operation rhythm and risks [3] 3.2 Price - The report provides line charts of multiple shipping route indexes, including the European line index, the US West line index, the US East line index, etc., but no specific analysis content is provided [6] 3.3 Static Shipping Capacity - Order Volume: The report shows the order volume of container ships in different loading capacities over the years, including different loading capacity ranges such as 100 - 2999 TEU, 3000 - 7999 TEU, 8000+ TEU, etc. [11] - Delivery Volume: It shows the delivery volume of container ships in different loading capacities over the years, including different loading capacity ranges such as 100 - 2999 TEU, 3000 - 5999 TEU, 6000 - 7999 TEU, 8000+ TEU, etc. [14] - Demolition Volume: It shows the demolition volume of container ships in different loading capacities over the years, including different loading capacity ranges such as 100 - 2999 TEU, 3000 - 5999 TEU, 6000 - 7999 TEU, 8000+ TEU, etc. [14][15] - Future Delivery: It shows the future delivery volume of container ships in different loading capacities, including different loading capacity ranges such as 0 - 3000 TEU, 3000 - 6000 TEU, 6000 - 8000 TEU, 8000 - 12000 TEU, 12000 - 16999 TEU, >17000 TEU, etc., and also shows the quarterly seasonal chart of future delivery [20][22][23] - Scrap Price: It shows the scrap prices of container ships in different loading capacities, including different loading capacity ranges such as about 1000 TEU, about 1700 TEU, about 2000 TEU, etc., and also shows the new - building price index and second - hand price index of container ships [27][33] - Existing Shipping Capacity: It shows the existing shipping capacity of container ships in different loading capacities, including the total shipping capacity, the shipping capacity of different age groups, the proportion of idle and retrofitted ships, the average age, and the average age of scrapped ships [42][45][49] 3.4 Dynamic Shipping Capacity - Shipping Schedule: It shows the shipping capacity deployment of different alliances (PA + MSC, GEMINI, OCEAN, etc.) on the Shanghai - European base port route from week 13 to week 28 [57][59][61] - Desulfurization Tower Installation: It shows the situation of container ships with desulfurization towers installed, being installed, the average age and duration of desulfurization tower installation, and the average speed of container ships [67][70][72] - Idle Shipping Capacity: It shows the idle shipping capacity of container ships, including the total idle shipping capacity, the idle shipping capacity in different loading capacity ranges, the proportion of idle shipping capacity, and the hot - idle shipping capacity [75][76][77]