纸浆周报：多空因素交织，建议谨慎观望-20260202

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the pulp industry is "观望" (wait - and - see). Given the current situation where bullish factors on the supply side and bearish factors on the demand side are intertwined, along with significant macro - fluctuations in commodities, it is recommended to observe cautiously [4]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pulp market is currently influenced by a combination of multiple factors. Supply - side factors are relatively strong, demand - side factors are neutral to bearish, and inventory factors are bearish. Overall, the market lacks clear - cut trends, and it is advisable to wait and see before making investment decisions [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - Supply: Supply factors are strong. APP has raised global pulp prices by $20 per ton, and Suzano has announced a $10 per - ton price increase. APRIL plans unplanned maintenance shutdowns on selected pulp production lines from February to March 2026, with an expected production reduction of about 150,000 tons [4]. - Demand: Demand factors are neutral to bearish. The price of household paper has continued to rise this week, while the price of coated paper has fallen. The prices of offset paper and white cardboard have remained stable. Paper production has slightly decreased due to maintenance, and most paper mills have gradually completed pre - Spring Festival inventory preparations [4]. - Inventory: Inventory factors are bearish. As of January 29, 2026, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 2.169 million tons, a cumulative increase of 101,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 4.9%. Port inventory has been increasing for four consecutive weeks [4]. - Investment View: Given the current situation where bullish supply - side and bearish demand - side factors are intertwined, along with significant macro - fluctuations in commodities, it is recommended to observe cautiously [4]. - Trading Strategy: For the single - side trading, the view is bearish. For arbitrage, it is necessary to monitor overseas pulp mill inventory levels and domestic finished paper prices [4]. 3.2 Review of Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures Market: Pulp futures have continued to perform weakly this week. The price of hardwood pulp has slightly declined, and the basis of softwood pulp has slightly strengthened. With the lack of positive drivers in the pulp futures market and a weakening of macro sentiment, it is expected to continue its weak performance next week [8]. - Spot Market: The price of hardwood pulp has softened, and the basis of softwood pulp has weakened. The price of softwood pulp (Silver Star) is 5,300 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 50 yuan per ton and a month - on - month decrease of 150 yuan per ton. The price of softwood pulp (Buzhen) is 4,650 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 50 yuan per ton and a month - on - month decrease of 170 yuan per ton. The price of hardwood pulp (Goldfish) is 4,550 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 70 yuan per ton and a month - on - month increase of 100 yuan per ton [17]. - External Quotes: In January, the external quote for softwood pulp increased. Chile's Arauco Company's January softwood pulp offer was $710 per ton, an increase of $10 per ton; the offer for hardwood pulp (Star) was $590 per ton, an increase of $20 per ton; the offer for natural pulp (Venus) was $620 per ton, remaining unchanged. The APP Group has increased pulp prices by $20 per ton in all global markets [19]. - Open Interest: As of January 30, 2025, the total open interest of pulp futures contracts was 372,546 lots, a 7% increase from the previous week; the open interest of the main pulp futures contract was 277,027 lots, a 6% increase from the previous week [21]. 3.3 Fundamental Data of Pulp Supply and Demand - Imports: In December, the import volume of hardwood chips increased significantly. The total pulp import volume was 3.246 million tons, a 23.99% increase; the softwood pulp import volume was 725,000 tons, a 4.92% increase; the hardwood pulp import volume was 1.765 million tons, a 33.88% increase; the hardwood chip import volume was 1.49 million tons, a 55.69% increase [6]. - Inventory: Pulp port inventory has increased, and futures warehouse receipts have slightly increased. As of January 29, 2026, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 2.169 million tons, a cumulative increase of 101,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 4.9%. The inventory at the delivery warehouse was 104,500 tons, a 4.30% increase [6]. Overseas pulp mill inventory days are basically stable. In late November, the inventory of commodity pulp suppliers in 20 countries was 46 days. The inventory days of bleached softwood pulp were 49 days, and the inventory days of bleached hardwood pulp were 45 days [37]. - Downstream Demand: The prices of wood - pulp paper products have remained stable. As of January 30, 2026, the price of offset paper was 4,725 yuan per ton, unchanged week - on - week; the price of coated paper was 4,660 yuan per ton, unchanged week - on - week; the price of household paper was 5,875 yuan per ton, unchanged week - on - week; the price of white cardboard was 4,269 yuan per ton, unchanged week - on - week. In December 2025, the production volume of paper products increased significantly month - on - month. The production of offset paper was 867,400 tons, a 9.7% month - on - month increase and a 15.8% year - on - year increase; the production of coated paper was 409,200 tons, a 4.3% month - on - month increase and a 21.1% year - on - year increase; the production of household paper was 858,600 tons, a 3% month - on - month increase and a 10.2% year - on - year increase; the production of white cardboard was 1.125 million tons, a 4.4% month - on - month increase and a 30.4% year - on - year increase [42][51]. - Overseas Market: In December 2025, European demand for softwood pulp was 198,600 tons (a 7.1% month - on - month decrease and an 8.3% year - on - year decrease); demand for hardwood pulp was 476,000 tons (an 11.59% month - on - month decrease and a 2.55% year - on - year increase). European pulp inventory decreased. In December 2025, the softwood pulp inventory was 222,800 tons (a 6.93% month - on - month increase and a 0.71% year - on - year increase); the hardwood pulp inventory was 493,800 tons (a 9.59% month - on - month increase and a 15.53% year - on - year increase) [79]. - Price Spreads: The basis of softwood pulp has weakened, and the 5 - 9 spread has remained flat. As of January 30, 2026, the basis of Shandong Silver Star was 0 yuan per ton, an increase of 48 yuan per ton from the previous week; the basis of Shandong Goldfish was - 750 yuan per ton, an increase of 28 yuan per ton from the previous week. As of January 23, 2026, the pulp 5 - 9 spread was - 44 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous week [85].