关注债市修复行情的持续性

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the text. Core Viewpoints - In January 2026, the bond market showed a recovery trend after hitting the bottom. It overcame the "stock - strong, bond - weak" situation at the beginning of the month, driven by policy expectations and supported by allocation forces. The yield curve initially steepened but later declined due to regulatory actions and central bank support. The 10 - year and shorter - term treasury bonds supported by banks outperformed the 30 - year treasury bonds. The yield of the 10 - year treasury bond decreased by 3.61BP compared to the end of 2025, while that of the 30 - year treasury bond increased by 2.16BP. The 10 - 1 year treasury bond term spread also narrowed to 51.13BP, at the 47% valuation percentile in the past 3 years [3][85]. - In February, the bond market faces the problem of limited odds for long - positions, and the recovery may enter the tail phase. Current interest rates are approaching key psychological levels and previous resistance levels. With the long - term and ultra - long - term treasury bond yields approaching previous lows again, there is limited room for further long - positions under market divergence. Additionally, around the Spring Festival, the market will face nearly 95 billion yuan of certificate of deposit maturities and seasonal liquidity tightening, which may impact the capital market. However, the bond market is unlikely to turn bearish in the short term because the macro - economy needs time to recover, and the central bank is not likely to tighten monetary policy actively [3][86]. - If the bond market recovery enters the tail phase in February, the market will likely enter an observation period with intensified gaming. The possibility of reserve requirement ratio cuts or interest rate cuts in the first quarter has decreased. The 10 - year and shorter - term treasury bonds supported by bank allocation may continue to outperform the 30 - year treasury bonds. After the period of temporary liquidity tightening, the 10 - year and shorter - term treasury bonds may have higher investment value [3][87]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Important Matters - In January 2026, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, 0.8 percentage points lower than the previous month; the construction industry PMI was 48.8%, 4.0 percentage points lower; the service industry PMI was 49.5%, 0.2 percentage points lower. In terms of production and demand, the production, new order, and new export order indices of the manufacturing PMI all decreased. In terms of inventory, the raw material inventory index decreased, while the finished - product inventory index increased. In terms of prices, the ex - factory price index and the main raw material purchase price index both increased [6]. - On January 22, 2026, the People's Bank of China held the 2026 macro - prudential work meeting. It summarized the work in 2025 and set requirements for 2026, including strengthening the central bank's macro - prudential management function, expanding the scope of macro - prudential policies, and promoting the internationalization of the RMB [7]. - According to Xinhua News Agency, on January 30, US President Trump nominated Kevin Warsh, a former Fed governor, as the next Fed chairman. This nomination needs Senate approval. Warsh has criticized the side - effects of quantitative easing policies and advocates closer cooperation between the Fed and the US Treasury [8]. 2. Money Market 2.1 Open Market Operations and Fund Rate Trends - From January 26 to January 30, 2026, the central bank conducted 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, injecting 176.15 billion yuan and having 118.10 billion yuan mature, with a net injection of 58.05 billion yuan. From February 2 to February 6, 2026, 176.15 billion yuan of base currency is expected to mature and be withdrawn [11]. - Towards the end of January, the capital market tightened marginally. On January 30, R001 rose above 1.5%. During January 26 - 30, the 7 - day open - market reverse repurchase rate was 1.40%. As of January 30, R001, R007, DR001, and DR007 were 1.509%, 1.640%, 1.328%, and 1.593% respectively, with changes of 4.32BP, 10.41BP, - 7.06BP, and 9.91BP compared to January 23. The interest rate centers also changed slightly [12]. 2.2 Certificate of Deposit Rate Trends and Repurchase Transaction Situations - In the primary market, last week, the issuance scale of certificates of deposit was 377.12 billion yuan, a decrease of 211.21 billion yuan from the previous week; the maturity scale was 428.40 billion yuan, a decrease of 277.99 billion yuan from the previous week; the net financing scale was - 51.28 billion yuan, an increase of 66.78 billion yuan from the previous week. As of the 5th week of 2025, the cumulative issuance scale of certificates of deposit for the whole year has reached 1.71 trillion yuan [17]. - The largest issuer of certificates of deposit last week was joint - stock banks, with a net financing scale of 21.35 billion yuan. The issuance scales of state - owned banks, joint - stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks were 22.18 billion yuan, 206.90 billion yuan, 203.47 billion yuan, and 22.73 billion yuan respectively, accounting for 4.9%, 45.4%, 44.7%, and 5.0%. Their net financing scales were - 16.94 billion yuan, 21.35 billion yuan, 2.42 billion yuan, and - 7.39 billion yuan respectively [19]. - The issuance interest rates of certificates of deposit decreased compared to the previous week. For state - owned banks, the average issuance interest rates of 3 - month and 1 - year certificates of deposit were 1.56% and 1.58% respectively, with changes of - 1.10BP and - 1.75BP. For joint - stock banks, they were 1.57% and 1.60% respectively, with changes of - 0.63BP and - 1.92BP. For city commercial banks, they were 1.68% and 1.69% respectively, with changes of 4.25BP and - 6.94BP. For rural commercial banks, they were 1.62% and 1.67% respectively, with changes of - 3.78BP and - 3.59BP [20]. - In the secondary market, last week, the interest rates of certificates of deposit generally increased due to the relatively tightened liquidity at the end of the month. The yields of AAA - rated 1 - month, 3 - month, 6 - month, 9 - month, and 1 - year certificates of deposit increased by 0.00BP, 0.50BP, 1.17BP, 0.50BP, and 0.50BP respectively. The 1Y - 3M spread is currently at the 47.07% percentile [23]. 3. Bond Market Primary Market - In January 2026, the issuance rhythm of government bonds was higher than the average of the past four years. As of January 30, the cumulative net financing scale of various treasury bonds was about 0.43 trillion yuan, and that of various local bonds was about 0.78 trillion yuan, higher than the average of 2022 - 2025. The issuance scale of long - term government bonds (10 - year and above) also showed certain characteristics. The net financing of 10 - year treasury bonds in January 2026 was higher than that of 2023 - 2025 due to the issuance of relevant bonds. The issuance rhythm of local bonds was postponed, and the issuance progress of special bonds for replacing hidden debts needs further observation [26][27][29]. - Last week, the supply scale of treasury bonds decreased significantly compared to the previous week. The total number of interest - rate bond issuances was 90, with an actual issuance amount of 624.275 billion yuan and a net financing amount of 460.465 billion yuan. Among them, the number of treasury bond issuances was 0, with a net financing amount of - 113.34 billion yuan; the number of local bond issuances was 68, with a net financing amount of 388.805 billion yuan; the number of policy - bank bond issuances was 22, with a net financing amount of 185.00 billion yuan [32]. - As of last week, the issuance scale of special refinancing bonds has reached 0.56 trillion yuan, mainly in long - term and ultra - long - term. The regions with relatively large issuance scales include Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Henan, Jiangxi, and Sichuan, accounting for about 49.24% of the total issuance scale [37]. Secondary Market - Last week, large - scale banks continued to prefer treasury bonds with a maturity of less than 10 years. However, the short - term interest rates increased slightly due to the tightened liquidity at the end of the month. In contrast, the medium - and long - term treasury bonds still showed a recovery trend. The yields of 1 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds changed by 1.80BP, - 2.09BP, - 2.04BP, - 1.82BP, - 1.86BP, and 0.19BP respectively. The 10Y - 1Y treasury bond yield spread decreased from 54.79BP to 51.13BP. The yields of the same - term policy - bank bonds also changed, and the 10Y - 1Y policy - bank bond yield spread increased from 39.76BP to 40.32BP. The implied tax rate of the 10 - year policy - bank bond increased slightly from 7.28% to 8.82% [39]. - The average daily turnover rates of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond (250016) and the 10 - year policy - bank bond active bond (250215) decreased. The average daily trading volume of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond (250016) was 32.589 billion yuan, a decrease of about 25.24% from the previous week, and its average turnover rate was 7.04%, a decrease of about 2.38 percentage points. The average daily trading volume of the 10 - year policy - bank bond (250215) active bond was 254.788 billion yuan, a decrease of about 2.56% from the previous week, and its average turnover rate was 64.34%, a decrease of about 1.69 percentage points [43]. - The average spread between the 10 - year treasury bond active bond (250016) and the secondary - active bond (250022) was 0.91BP, basically the same as the previous week's liquidity premium. The average spread between the 10 - year policy - bank bond active bond (250215) and the secondary - active bond (250220) was - 2.34BP, a change of about 1.56BP from the previous week [44]. - The 10 - 1 year treasury bond term spread narrowed to 51.13BP, and the 30 - 1 year treasury bond term spread narrowed to 98.91BP. As of January 30, the 10 - 1 year treasury bond yield spread was 51.13BP, a decrease of 3.66BP from the previous week, at the 47.07% percentile since 2022; the 30 - 1 year treasury bond yield spread was 98.91BP, a decrease of 1.61BP from the previous week, at the 70.50% percentile since 2022. Considering the central bank's structural interest rate cut, the possibility of a total interest rate cut is relatively small, and the term spread may further compress [51]. - The long - term treasury - local bond spread generally narrowed last week, while the ultra - long - term treasury - local bond spread widened. As of January 30, the 10 - year local bond - 10 - year treasury bond yield spread was 20.88BP, a decrease of 0.14BP from the previous week, at the 47.32% percentile since 2022; the 30 - year local bond - 30 - year treasury bond yield spread was 16.10BP, an increase of 1.81BP from the previous week, at the 52.88% percentile since 2022 [52]. 4. Institutional Behavior Tracking - Last week, the scale of leveraged trading decreased as the end - of - month approached, with an average of about 7.80 trillion yuan. In the cash - bond market, large - scale banks increased their holdings of treasury bonds with a maturity of less than 10 years, with a total increase of 128.4 billion yuan. Small - and medium - sized banks continued to significantly reduce their holdings of 5 - 10 year treasury bonds, and the reduction intensity increased. Insurance companies significantly bought local bonds with a maturity of more than 10 years but reduced their holdings of treasury bonds with a maturity of more than 10 years. Securities companies' net selling intensity slowed down, and they increased their holdings of 5 - 10 year treasury bonds. Funds significantly increased their holdings of 5 - 10 year policy - bank bonds [55][67]. - The leveraging ratio of institutions in the inter - bank market increased seasonally in December 2025. The leveraging ratios of banks and other institutions increased significantly, while securities companies de - leveraged. In December 2025, the leveraging ratio of all institutions in the inter - bank market was about 119.37%, an increase of about 1.33 percentage points from November. The leveraging ratios of commercial banks, securities companies, and other institutions in the inter - bank market in December 2025 were about 110.30%, 187.68%, and 134.42% respectively [56]. - The 20 - day moving average of the daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase last week was 8.07 trillion yuan, a change of about 0.20 trillion yuan from the previous week. From the perspective of daily trading volume, the scale of leveraged trading decreased as the end - of - month approached, with an average of about 7.80 trillion yuan. The daily leveraged trading volumes from January 26 to January 30 were 8.45 trillion yuan, 8.32 trillion yuan, 8.03 trillion yuan, 7.76 trillion yuan, and 6.43 trillion yuan respectively [64]. - Based on the net - buying data of institutional investors in the past 20 trading days, the cost of adding positions in 10 - year treasury bonds for small - and medium - sized banks, securities companies, funds, and other products is about 1.880%, 1.848%, 1.861%, and 1.861% respectively. Small - and medium - sized banks and securities companies had relatively weak willingness to replenish positions last week, while funds and other institutions gradually added positions during the downward process [70]. - According to the calculation methods in relevant reports, considering capital occupation and tax costs, commercial banks and insurance companies can obtain relatively higher returns by investing in local bonds because the spread between local bonds and treasury bonds is relatively high [79]. 5. High - Frequency Data Tracking - In terms of high - frequency data, last week, the settlement price of rebar futures decreased by 1.65% compared to the previous week, the settlement price of wire rod futures increased by 4.26%, the settlement price of cathode copper futures increased by 6.17%, the cement price index decreased by 0.58%, and the Nanhua glass index decreased by 0.75%. The CCFI index decreased by 2.74%, and the BDI index increased by 21.91%. In terms of food prices, the wholesale price of pork increased by 0.11%, and the wholesale price of vegetables decreased by 0.88%. In terms of crude oil prices, the settlement prices of Brent crude oil futures and WTI crude oil futures increased by 7.33% and 7.12% respectively. The central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB was 6.97 [82]. 6. Market Outlook - In January 2026, the bond market showed a recovery trend after hitting the bottom. Affected by the "stock - strong, bond - weak" situation at the beginning of the month, the yield curve steepened. Later, due to regulatory actions and central bank support, the bond market recovered. The 10 - year and shorter - term treasury bonds supported by banks outperformed the 30 - year treasury