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Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view of the report is "oscillating weakly" [3] Core View of the Report - The supply of Brazilian soybeans is sufficient, and the congestion in logistics is expected to shift the selling pressure of Brazilian discounts. The domestic purchase and shipping profit is at a high level. The unilateral short - term rebound is expected to be limited, and it will maintain an oscillating and weak trend later. The domestic supply - demand in the first quarter is expected to be loose, the spot basis is expected to weaken, and M3 - M5 is biased towards reverse arbitrage [3] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Main Views and Strategy Overview Supply - Brazilian soybeans are in the harvesting period. As of January 24, the harvest progress of Brazilian soybeans in the 25/26 season was 6.6%, faster than the same period last year. However, there is a shipping delay due to a shortage of trucks. The pre - sale progress of new crops is about 31%, slower than the same period last year. The USDA estimates the Brazilian soybean output in the 25/26 season to reach 178 million tons, and the expected discount will face selling pressure [3] - Recently, the soybean - producing areas in Argentina have been dry, and the crop quality rate has declined. As of January 21, the proportion of good - rated soybean crops in Argentina in the 2025/26 season was 53%. There is an expectation of rainfall recovery in the next two weeks [3] - According to domestic purchase and shipping situations, the expected arrival volume in February is 4.84 million tons, and in March is 4.7 million tons. The global rapeseed output in 2025/26 is expected to increase, and attention should be paid to the actual implementation of China - Canada trade policies [3] Demand - Recently, the feed demand for soybean meal is expected to decline seasonally. The self - breeding and self - raising pig farming profit has turned positive, the pig inventory is at a high level, and the capacity reduction is not obvious. Under the expectation of capacity adjustment and policy control, the feed demand in the far - month is expected to shrink [3] - The pre - festival stocking of soybean meal is over, the far - month trading volume has increased, and the pick - up performance is good. The trading and pick - up performance of rapeseed meal downstream is average [3] Inventory - The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are seasonally decreasing, but are still at a high level. The inventory days of soybean meal in feed enterprises have increased, and the domestic rapeseed meal inventory is being depleted [3] Basis/Spread - The basis is neutral [3] Profit - The purchase and crushing profit of new domestic soybean crops is good, and the crushing profit of Canadian rapeseed is also good [3] Valuation - From the perspective of crushing profit, the soybean meal futures price is at a relatively high valuation; from the perspective of absolute price, it is at a relatively low valuation [3] Investment View - The investment view is "oscillating weakly". The domestic supply - demand in the first quarter is expected to be loose, the spot basis is expected to weaken, and M3 - M5 is biased towards reverse arbitrage [3] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillating weakly; Arbitrage: M3 - M5 reverse arbitrage. Attention should be paid to policies and weather [3] 2. Fundamental Data on Supply and Demand of Meal Products Inventory - Consumption Ratio - In January, the inventory - consumption ratios of US soybeans and global soybeans in the 25/26 season were raised [27] - In January, the global rapeseed inventory - consumption ratio was lowered [33] Production and Sales - The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at a high level, and the inventory of feed enterprises has increased [71] - The US soybean export sales progress is slow [51] - The Brazilian soybean harvest rate is presented in the report [58] Price and Profit - The US soybean domestic crushing profit has increased [43] - The Canadian rapeseed CFR price and the import crushing profit are presented in the report [63] Other Data - Data such as the soybean CNF premium, the import soybean futures margin, the US dollar - Brazilian real exchange rate, and the import volume of soybeans, rapeseed, and rapeseed meal in different months are presented in the report [60][65][67] - Data on the opening rate, crushing volume, trading volume, pick - up volume, and apparent consumption of major domestic oil mills are presented in the report [79][82][83] - Data on the inventory of domestic imported rapeseed and rapeseed meal in major regions, the trading volume and pick - up volume of oil - mill rapeseed meal are presented in the report [86][94] - The cost - performance of soybean meal has declined [97] - Data on the feed monthly output, pig farming profit, pig price, chicken farming profit, egg - laying hen farming profit, etc. are presented in the report [100][102][110]