2月基金配置展望：继续看好权益与小盘、成长风格

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - Continue to be optimistic about equities, small - cap, and growth styles. Maintain a high allocation of equity assets, be bullish on the performance of Hong Kong stocks, and suggest paying attention to small - cap and growth - style funds. For fixed - income + funds, focus on relatively stable varieties, and for bond funds, focus on short - duration varieties [2][76]. Summary by Directory 1. 1 - month Review: Equity and Commodity Prices Rise, US Dollar Index Declines 1.1 Asset Market Performance - Stock Market: A - shares and US stocks rose. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 3.76%, the Science and Technology Innovation 50 rose 12.29%, the Dow Jones Index rose 1.73%, and the Nasdaq Index rose 0.95%. The A - share "Spring Rally" continued, with the mid - cap growth style having the largest increase. US stocks fluctuated upward due to the resilience of economic data, and Hong Kong stocks rose influenced by the A - share market [8][14]. - Bond Market: US Treasury yields increased, while Chinese government bond yields decreased. The 1 - year US Treasury yield rose slightly to 3.48%, and the 10 - year yield rose to 4.26%. In China, the 1 - year government bond yield dropped to 1.30%, and the 10 - year yield dropped to 1.81%, with the term spread slightly widening [8][18]. - Commodity Market: Commodity prices rose. The CRB Commodity Index rose 7.13%, the Nanhua Commodity Index rose 8.61%, and COMEX gold rose 13.28%. Crude oil prices rose to $70.7 per barrel, and precious metals had the largest price increases, exceeding 40% [8][27]. - Foreign Exchange Market: The US dollar index declined, and the RMB appreciated. The US dollar index dropped to 97.12, and the RMB spot exchange rate rose to around 6.95 [8][23]. 1.2 Fund Market Performance - Performance and Issuance: In January, the fund market performed well, and the issuance scale increased. The total issuance scale in January was 120.2 billion yuan, a 6% increase from the previous month. Equity funds' issuance scale was 69.3 billion yuan, a 113% increase from the previous month, accounting for 58% of the total issuance [33]. - Fund Capital Flows: In January, the on - site funds had a net capital outflow. ETFs had a net outflow of 821.95 billion yuan (excluding money - market funds), and LOFs had a net inflow of 2.23 billion yuan. Among ETFs, equity products had a net outflow of 774.74 billion yuan, and bond - type products had a net outflow of 108.35 billion yuan. Among LOFs, equity products had a net outflow of 0.6 billion yuan [37]. - Active Equity Fund Style Tracking: The overall position of the active equity funds in the whole market increased their exposure to the prosperity style and reduced their exposure to the quality, dividend, and value - potential styles. The median position of the prosperity style was 30%, a 22 - percentage - point increase from the end of the previous month, while the median positions of the quality, dividend, and value - potential styles decreased by 33, 8, and 4 percentage points respectively [38]. 2. 2 - month Outlook: Continue to be Optimistic about Equities, Small - cap, and Growth Styles 2.1 Overseas and Domestic Environment - Overseas: In January, the market's expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cuts in 2026 decreased significantly, and the long - term US Treasury yields continued to rise [44]. - Domestic: The private - sector financing growth rate continued to rise, the inflation factor continued to recover, and the economic recovery signal of the fundamental model continued. It is recommended to maintain a high allocation of equity assets [49]. 2.2 Trading Perspective - Stock Market Odds: The stock - market odds have been fluctuating around the 3 - year average since 2025. As of January 30, the dividend yield of the CSI 300 was 2.6%, and the equity risk premium ERP(DY) was 1.4, at the 61.3% percentile of the past 3 years [50]. - Market Sentiment: The A - share market sentiment has returned to the optimistic range. Based on the A - share market sentiment index constructed from seven indicators, the sentiment index has returned to the optimistic range [54]. 2.3 Market Style - Growth Style: The growth - value style rotation model shows that the market factor, US Treasury yield, and style momentum all favor the growth style, so the growth style is comprehensively recommended [61]. - Small - cap Style: Although the current credit environment recommends the large - cap style, the loose monetary environment and long - and short - term style momentum still recommend the small - cap style, so the small - cap style is comprehensively recommended [65]. 2.4 Hong Kong Stock Market - Based on the Hong Kong - stock timing strategy of macro - comprehensive indicators, the macro - indicators that are bullish on Hong Kong stocks have recovered, and the model continues to be bullish on the performance of Hong Kong stocks [69]. 2.5 Domestic Bond Market - The short - term liquidity remains in a tight balance, and the long - term interest rates have declined. Due to the continuous implementation of growth - stabilizing policies and the need for domestic interest - rate cuts, short - term bonds present better opportunities than long - term bonds [74]. 2.6 February Fund Allocation Strategy - Equity Assets: Maintain a high allocation of equity assets, and pay attention to investment opportunities in Hong Kong stocks. - Style Preference: In the short term, the small - cap and growth styles are expected to continue to outperform, so continue to pay attention to small - cap and growth - style funds. - Fixed - income + and Bond Funds: For fixed - income + funds, focus on relatively stable varieties, and for bond funds, focus on short - duration varieties. - Recommended Funds: Silver Hua Integrated Circuit (013840.OF, medium - high risk), Soochow Mobile Internet (001323.OF, medium - high risk), Bosera Sheng Yan (012124.OF, medium - high risk), BOC Stable Income (380009.OF, medium risk), Penghua Stable Short - term Bond (007515.OF) [76].