Guoyuan Securities·2026-02-02 09:12Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the semiconductor and semiconductor production equipment industry [7] Core Insights - The overseas AI chip index increased by 0.95% this week, with MPS and Broadcom rising by 5.7% and 3.5%, while AMD fell by 8.8% [10] - The domestic AI chip index decreased by 2.1%, with notable increases from 澜起科技 (13.6%) and 兆易创新 (5.9%), while 恒玄科技 and 通富微电 saw declines of 10.4% and 7.6% respectively [10] - NVIDIA is collaborating with Mercedes-Benz to promote Robotaxi services, indicating a strong demand for AI-related applications [3][34] - TSMC plans to expand its CoWoS capacity significantly over the next two years, responding to increasing demand from clients like NVIDIA [3][38] Market Indices - The overseas AI chip index rose by 0.95%, while the domestic AI chip index fell by 2.1% [10] - The NVIDIA mapping index decreased by 1.8%, with significant gains from 长芯博创 and 太辰光, both exceeding 22% [10][13] - The server ODM index fell by 0.7%, with Supermicro experiencing a decline of over 8% [10][13] - The storage chip index increased by 4.4%, with 恒烁股份 and 普冉股份 rising over 33% [10][16] - The power semiconductor index rose by 4.3%, while the A-share fruit chain index fell by 5.2% [10][18] Industry Data - The high-end cloud ASIC accelerator shipment is expected to reach 7.234 million units in 2026, driven by performance-cost ratios and supply chain stability [2][24] - Global AR glasses shipments are projected to reach 950,000 units in 2026, a 53% year-on-year increase [2][27] - The global smartphone market is expected to see a mild recovery in 2025, with shipments growing by 2% to 1.25 billion units, the highest since 2021 [2][30] Major Events - TSMC's capacity expansion over the next decade is projected to exceed 100%, with NVIDIA's demand alone showing exponential growth [3][34] - Samsung will begin mass production of HBM4 in February 2026, with expected revenue growth of over 300% compared to 2025 [3][34] - Tesla is planning to build a "TeraFab" semiconductor factory to meet its chip demands, indicating a significant shift in semiconductor supply dynamics [3][35] - Meta's capital expenditure related to AI is projected to be between $115 billion and $135 billion this year, nearly double last year's spending [3][39]