贵金属周报：金价冲高回落-20260202

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The sharp decline in gold and silver prices last Friday night, with silver hitting the跌停, was the result of a combination of short - term news - based shocks and market self - correction pressure. The rumored nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair by President Trump was the direct trigger. Warsh is considered a "hawk," and his potential tenure may lead to a tightening of dollar liquidity, pressuring the prices of non - interest - bearing safe - haven assets like gold and silver. [6][24] - Gold and silver also faced significant correction pressure due to factors such as the CME's multiple increases in margin ratios for gold and silver futures, the approaching Chinese Spring Festival with overseas volatility and margin call risks, the expiration of the January COMEX silver futures contracts leading to large - scale long - position liquidation, and the large profit - taking potential after the "epic" rise in silver prices since January. [7][25] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review 3.1.1 Weekly Trend - The report shows a chart of the linkage between the US dollar index and the COMEX gold futures closing price, but no detailed written description of the weekly trend is provided other than the chart. [11] 3.1.2 Indicator Price Changes | Indicator | January 30 | January 23 | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | COMEX Gold | 4,907.50 | 4,983.10 | - 1.52% | | COMEX Silver | 85.25 | 103.26 | - 17.44% | | SHFE Gold Main Contract | 1,161.42 | 1,115.64 | 4.10% | | SHFE Silver Main Contract | 27,941.00 | 24,965.00 | 11.92% | | US Dollar Index | 97.12 | 97.50 | - 0.40% | | USD/Offshore RMB | 6.96 | 6.95 | 0.13% | | 10 - year US Treasury Real Yield | 1.90 | 1.92 | - 0.02 | | S&P 500 | 6,939.03 | 6,915.61 | 0.34% | | US Crude Oil Continuous | 65.74 | 61.28 | 7.28% | | COMEX Gold - Silver Ratio | 57.57 | 48.26 | 19.29% | | SHFE Gold - Silver Ratio | 41.57 | 44.69 | - 6.98% | | SPDR Gold ETF | 1,087.10 | 1,086.53 | 0.57 | | iShare Gold ETF | 497.99 | 494.56 | 3.43 | [12] 3.2 Gold Price Reached a High and Then Declined - In the first half of the week, the continuous weakening of the US dollar index, which fell below the lowest level since the second half of 2025, reflected the accelerating global de - dollarization, and the gold price showed an accelerating upward trend. [14] - In the second half of the week, the market rumor about Kevin Warsh's potential nomination as the next Fed Chair led to concerns about tightened dollar liquidity, which directly pressured gold and silver prices. Additionally, after the short - term sharp rise in gold prices, the strong willingness of long - position holders to take profits exacerbated the sharp decline. [14] 3.3 Tracking of Other Indicators - On January 30, the combined holdings of SPDR and iShares gold ETFs reached 1,581.09 tons, an increase of 4.00 tons from the previous week. [18] - As precious metals declined last week, the decline in silver was more significant, and the gold - silver ratio rebounded from its low. Since January, the gold - silver ratio has been falling with the rise of precious metals, reaching the lowest level since 2011, which may indicate that silver was overvalued in the short term. [21] 3.4 Conclusion - The sharp decline in gold and silver prices last Friday night was due to short - term news shocks and market self - correction pressure. The rumored nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair was the direct trigger. [24] - Gold and silver also faced significant self - correction pressure, including increased margin ratios, the approaching Spring Festival in the domestic market, the expiration of the January COMEX silver futures contracts, and the large profit - taking potential after the sharp rise in silver prices. [25]