原油期货：地缘溢价已充分

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a weekly report on crude oil futures dated February 2, 2026 [2] - The report is written by Shi Xiuming with investment consulting qualification number F0255552 [3] Group 2: Market Review and Outlook - Geopolitical speculation around the US - Iran situation has been the core driver of oil price increases. If geopolitical conflicts threaten the Strait of Hormuz, the maximum rebound of oil prices could reach 20%, with WTI at $66/barrel, Brent at $72/barrel, and SC at around 500 yuan/barrel. Last week, oil prices reached this high and then fell [3] - Geopolitical conflicts have cooled as Iran's Foreign Minister expressed confidence in reaching a nuclear - deal with the US [3] - OPEC+ suspended production increases in Q1 2026, but there was significant cumulative production increase in 2025. Non - OPEC+ countries like the US, Brazil, and Guyana are producing at high levels. The expected non - OPEC+ supply increment in 2026 is about 1.2 million barrels per day [3] - Venezuela's situation causes short - term export disruptions, but is seen as a potential supply expansion in the long - term [3] - Supply growth pressure remains. Short - term supply variables depend on Iran (geopolitical fermentation), and long - term on OPEC+ policies [3] Group 3: Factors to Watch - Geopolitical factors and weekly crude oil data should be monitored [4] Group 4: Weekly Fundamental Data Changes | Commodity | Unit | Latest Week | Previous Week | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | Frequency | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SC Crude Oil Futures | Yuan/barrel | 470.80 | 441.90 | 28.90 | 6.54% | Daily | | Oman Crude Oil Spot | US dollars/barrel | 66.70 | 62.63 | 4.07 | 6.50% | Daily | | Brent Crude Oil Futures | US dollars/barrel | 70.80 | 66.29 | 4.51 | 6.80% | Daily | | WTI Crude Oil Futures | US dollars/barrel | 65.59 | 61.29 | 4.30 | 7.02% | Daily | | US Crude Oil Production | Thousand barrels per day | 13696 | 13580 | 116 | 0.85% | Weekly | | US Crude Oil Inventory | Thousand barrels | 423754 | 426049 | - 2295 | - 0.54% | Weekly | | Comprehensive Refinery Profit | Yuan/ton | 659 | 761 | - 102 | - 13.40% | Weekly | [5] Group 5: Report Content by Category 1. Spot and Futures Market Review - The report presents multiple charts related to spot and futures prices, including SC crude oil futures price, Oman crude oil spot price, Brent and WTI crude oil futures and their spreads, and the relationship between the US dollar index and WTI crude oil [9][10][11] 2. Supply Situation Analysis - The report includes charts on OPEC crude oil production, US weekly crude oil production, US drilling rig numbers, and new well - drilling numbers [14][16][18] 3. Crude Oil Inventory - Charts show OECD total crude oil and oil product inventories, US crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves), and US crude oil inventories in Cushing [20][22][26] 4. Demand Situation Analysis - The report provides charts on US refinery input, capacity utilization, China's refined oil refinery and independent refinery operating rates, European 16 - country refinery operating rates, and India's total crude oil processing volume [29][34][36] 5. Cost - Profit Analysis - A chart shows the comprehensive refining profit of major refineries and independent refineries [38]