甲醇：港口库存高位震荡偏弱

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - Last week, the port methanol market fluctuated and consolidated. The price in Jiangsu ranged from 2,240 to 2,330 yuan/ton, and in Guangdong from 2,220 to 2,290 yuan/ton. Import demand was weak, port methanol inventory accumulated slightly at a high level, and the market's tradable volume was high, putting pressure on the upside. However, due to the unstable international situation and positive macro - outlook, the market fluctuated strongly under the boost of sentiment. Inland methanol prices continued to decline, with the price in the Ordos northern line in the main production area ranging from 1,785 to 1,805 yuan/ton, and the receiving price in Dongying ranging from 2,100 to 2,130 yuan/ton. The production and sales areas in the inland were split. Before the festival, enterprises mainly focused on reducing prices to clear inventory. Coupled with high freight rates, manufacturers in the northwest产区 offered discounts, leading to a continuous decline in ex - factory prices. The consumer market remained relatively firm due to the increase in arrival costs [1]. - The overall profit of methanol enterprises is poor. The domestic methanol start - up is expected to remain at a high level. Seasonal gas restrictions in the Middle East have taken effect. This week, the expected arrival at ports is expected to decrease, and the overall demand for methanol downstream is expected to pick up. Methanol supply is abundant, port inventory has increased at a high level and is expected to decline this week. It is expected that the methanol price will fluctuate weakly in the near future, with the upper pressure on the 05 contract at the 2,350 level [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook - Port methanol market: Last week, it fluctuated and consolidated. Jiangsu price range: 2,240 - 2,330 yuan/ton; Guangdong price range: 2,220 - 2,290 yuan/ton. Import demand was weak, inventory accumulated slightly at a high level, and tradable volume was high. Market fluctuated strongly due to positive macro - outlook [1]. - Inland methanol market: Prices continued to decline. Ordos northern line price range: 1,785 - 1,805 yuan/ton; Dongying receiving price range: 2,100 - 2,130 yuan/ton. Enterprises focused on price - cut inventory clearance, freight was high, and ex - factory prices decreased. Consumer market was relatively firm due to higher arrival costs [1]. - Outlook: Overall profit of methanol enterprises is poor. Domestic start - up expected to remain high. Middle East gas restrictions in place, port arrivals expected to decrease this week, downstream demand expected to pick up. Supply is abundant, port inventory increased at high level and expected to decline. Price expected to fluctuate weakly, 05 contract upper pressure at 2,350 [1]. 2. Key Factors to Watch - Methanol start - up changes [2] - Methanol port inventory changes [2] 3. Weekly Changes in Fundamental Data - Periodic and Spot Market Review: Last week, the port methanol market fluctuated and consolidated, with the Jiangsu price ranging from 2,240 to 2,330 yuan/ton [7]. - Supply Situation Analysis: As of January 29, the weekly capacity utilization rate of Chinese methanol plants was 91.21%, a 1.43% increase from the previous period. The weekly average profit of coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia was - 266.10 yuan/ton, a 1.00% increase from the previous period and a 598.43% decrease from the same period last year; the average profit of coal - to - methanol in Shandong was - 158.10 yuan/ton, a 10.58% increase from the previous period and a 226.58% decrease from the same period last year; the average profit of coal - to - methanol in Shanxi was - 226.30 yuan/ton, a 10.71% decrease from the previous period and a 454.66% decrease from the same period last year; the weekly average profit of coke - oven gas - to - methanol in Hebei was 61.00 yuan/ton, a 16.00% decrease from the previous period and an 85.78% decrease from the same period last year; the weekly average profit of natural gas - to - methanol in the southwest was - 290.00 yuan/ton, a 9.02% decrease from the previous period and a significant decrease from the same period last year [8]. - Demand Situation Analysis: As of January 29, 2026, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of MTO plants in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 30.48%, a decrease of 13.90 percentage points from the previous week. The Ningbo Fude plant restarted, and the Sierbang plant was shut down for maintenance. The overall capacity utilization rate of glacial acetic acid increased as the southwest plant resumed operation, while Ineos and Xinjiang plants remained shut down [10]. - Inventory Analysis: As of January 28, the total sample inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 147.21 tons, a 1.46 - ton increase from the previous period and a 54.24 - ton increase (58.34% year - on - year) compared with the same period last year [12]. - Position Analysis: As of January 30, the long positions of the top 20 members in the methanol futures market were 613,144, an increase of 371, and the short positions were 739,936, an increase of 44,528. The net positions of the top 20 members were bearish [19].