铜：冲高回落，回归现实

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, copper prices on both domestic and international markets rose strongly and reached new highs, then quickly corrected. The sharp rise was driven by capital and market sentiment, deviating from the fundamentals. After the speculative sentiment fades, copper prices will gradually return to the pattern of "strong expectation" and "weak reality" dominated by fundamentals. In the short - term, be vigilant about the high - level volatility of copper prices, and in the long - term, wait for demand verification [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - Macro aspect: After the Fed's first interest - rate meeting this year, the interest rate remained unchanged. The market had anticipated the delay of the interest - rate cut policy. The US dollar index weakened to a historical low, then rebounded after Trump nominated Warsh as the next Fed chairman [2]. - Supply end: The long - term supply shortage story is still solid. There are frequent disturbances in the mining end, and Chinese smelters' production cut plans due to low processing fees have intensified supply - side concerns. The supply shortages in the mining and smelting ends support copper prices at the bottom [2]. - Demand end: As the Spring Festival approaches, traditional downstream industries enter the off - season, with light procurement activities. The high spot prices following the futures rise have suppressed physical demand [2]. Key Concerns - Pay attention to the latest US economic data and downstream demand changes [3]. Weekly Changes in Fundamental Data This Week | Indicator | Unit | This Week's Latest | Last Week's Same Period | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | Frequency | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Electrolytic copper price (≥99.95%): Shanghai | Yuan/ton | 104410 | 100680 | 3730 | 3.70% | Weekly | | Electrolytic copper premium/discount (≥99.95%): Shanghai | Yuan/ton | - 140 | - 180 | 40 | 22.22% | Weekly | | Clean copper concentrate forward spot comprehensive index (TC) | US dollars/dry ton | - 50.2 | - 49.8 | - 0.4 | - 0.80% | Weekly | | Oxygen - free copper rod price | Yuan/ton | 105390 | 101810 | 3580 | 3.52% | Weekly | | LME copper inventory | Tons | 174975 | 171700 | 3275 | 1.91% | Weekly | | SHFE copper inventory | Tons | 233004 | 225937 | 7067 | 3.13% | Weekly | | COMEX copper inventory | Short tons | 577724 | 562605 | 15119 | 2.69% | Weekly | [3] 1. Futures Market Review - The report shows the price trends of Shanghai copper, London copper, and the Shanghai - London ratio (without excluding exchange rates) in the form of graphs, with data sources from Boyi Master and Ningzheng Futures [5][6][7] 2. Supply Situation Analysis - The report shows the copper concentrate forward spot price (in TC price), the average processing price of crude copper, copper concentrate port inventory, domestic electrolytic copper production, the price change trends of electrolytic copper and scrap copper, and the refined - scrap price difference in the main markets in the form of graphs, with data sources from the Steel Union Terminal and Ningzheng Futures [12] 3. Demand Situation Analysis - The report shows the 1 electrolytic copper premium/discount (≥99.95%) in Shanghai, copper product prices, copper product capacity utilization rate, refined copper rod trading volume, Yangshan copper bonded area premium, and electrolytic copper warehouse receipt bill of lading premium (pyrometallurgical) in the form of graphs, with data sources from iFinD, the Steel Union Terminal, and the Steel Union Data [15] 4. Inventory Situation Analysis - The report shows the electrolytic copper spot inventory and the inventories of three major futures exchanges in the form of graphs, with data sources from the Steel Union Terminal and iFinD [17]