PTA期货：供需转弱，成本端走弱

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, PTA prices declined. TA2605 closed at 5,270 yuan/ton, a decrease of 178 yuan/ton or 3.27%. At the end of the year, terminal demand weakened, loom operating rates steadily declined, and polyester load dropped to the lowest point of the year. In February, there may be no new PTA maintenance plans, and the supply - demand outlook for PTA is weak, with a significant inventory build - up expected. Crude oil weakened, leading to the decline of PTA [2]. - The supply - demand pattern of PTA has slightly weakened. In February, there may be no new PTA maintenance plans. Around the Spring Festival, the terminal will have holidays, and polyester load will drop to the lowest point of the year. The supply - demand outlook for PTA is weak, with a significant inventory build - up expected. From the cost side, the Zhonghua Quanzhou PX plant restarted at the end of January, and there are no maintenance plans in February. With high PX profits, it is expected that the PX load in Asia and China will operate at a high level in February. Currently, oil prices are generally at a high level, and the crude oil supply - demand pattern is still weak. If geopolitical risks do not expand further, oil prices have a downward pressure, and the cost side may drag down PTA. Geopolitical risks should be monitored in February [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - This week, PTA declined. TA2605 closed at 5,270 yuan/ton, down 178 yuan/ton or 3.27%. Terminal demand weakened at the end of the year, loom operating rates declined, and polyester load dropped to the annual low. In February, PTA supply - demand is expected to be weak, with significant inventory build - up. Crude oil weakened, causing PTA to fall [2]. Key Concerns - Factors to watch include polyester operating rate, PTA maintenance, loom operating rate, PX adjustment demand, and crude oil trends [3]. Weekly Changes in Fundamental Data | PTA - related Index | Unit | Latest Week | Previous Period | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | Frequency | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PTA Futures (Continuous) | yuan/ton | 5,270.00 | 5,400.00 | - 130.00 | - 2.41% | Daily | | PTA Output | 10,000 tons | 142.87 | 139.28 | 3.59 | 2.58% | Weekly | | Polyester Chip Operating Rate | % | 81.71 | 85.52 | - 3.81 | - 4.46% | Weekly | | Jiangsu and Zhejiang Loom Operating Rate | % | 42.41 | 51.20 | - 8.79 | - 17.17% | Weekly | | PXN | yuan/ton | 316 | 357 | - 41.00 | - 11.48% | Daily | | PTA Cash - flow Cost | yuan/ton | 5,050 | 5,120 | - 70.00 | - 1.37% | Daily | [4] PX Market - There are figures showing PX futures closing prices, PX ex - factory prices in East China, PX CIF prices in Taiwan, CFR naphtha prices in Japan and their spreads, PX and MX prices in Taiwan and their spreads, and MX FOB prices in South Korea and the US Gulf and their spreads [8][9][10]. PX Supply - There are figures presenting PX production in Asia and China, PX monthly import volume and its year - on - year change, PX operating rates in China and Asia, and PX inventory [13][15][17]. PTA Market - There is a figure showing PTA futures closing prices (continuous) and the mainstream price in East China [20]. PTA Supply - There are figures showing PTA monthly output, PTA operating rate, and PTA social inventory [22][26]. PTA Consumption - There are figures showing PTA export volume, monthly output of polyester filament and staple fiber, operating rates of polyester chips, polyester filament and staple fiber, and loom operating rates in Jiangsu and Zhejiang [27][29][32]. Cost - Profit Analysis - There is a figure showing PTA spot price in East China, PTA cash - flow cost, and PTA profit [38].