瑞达期货螺纹钢产业链日报-20260202

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - In the consumption off - season, the demand for rebar has shrunk, and the dollar index has rebounded, leading to a general decline in commodities. The weekly output of rebar has increased slightly again, with a capacity utilization rate of 43.8% and a production volume of 199.83 tons. The apparent demand continues to decline, and the inventory has increased again. It is recommended for short - term trading and attention should be paid to risk control [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract is 3,098.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan; the position volume is 1,784,097 lots, an increase of 49,987 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the RB contract is - 37,840 lots, an increase of 29,321 lots; the RB5 - 10 contract spread is - 47 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan; the RB warehouse receipt at the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 35,841 tons, a decrease of 2,442 tons; the HC2605 - RB2605 contract spread is 163 yuan/ton, an increase of 3 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) is 3,270.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan; (actual weight) is 3,354 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan; in Guangzhou (theoretical weight) is 3,430.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Tianjin (theoretical weight) is 3,170.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the RB main contract is 172.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan; the spot price difference between hot - rolled coil and rebar in Hangzhou is 20.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB iron ore fines at Qingdao Port is 787.00 yuan/wet ton, a decrease of 7.00 yuan; the price of first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port (FOB) is 1,490.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) is 2,170.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Q235 billet in Hebei is 2,920.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20.00 yuan. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports is 17,018.52 million tons, an increase of 255.67 million tons; the inventory of coke at sample coking plants is 44.14 million tons, an increase of 2.20 million tons; the inventory of coke at sample steel mills is 678.40 million tons, an increase of 16.41 million tons; the inventory of billets in Tangshan is 158.75 million tons, an increase of 2.55 million tons. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 79.02%, an increase of 0.36 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 85.45%, a decrease of 0.08 percentage points [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly output of rebar at sample steel mills is 199.83 million tons, an increase of 0.28 million tons; the capacity utilization rate is 43.80%, an increase of 0.05 percentage points; the inventory at sample steel mills is 149.13 million tons, an increase of 0.15 million tons; the social inventory of rebar in 35 cities is 326.40 million tons, an increase of 23.28 million tons. The operating rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills is 68.75%, a decrease of 2.08 percentage points; the monthly output of domestic crude steel is 6,818 million tons, a decrease of 169 million tons; the monthly output of Chinese steel bars is 1,375 million tons, an increase of 19 million tons; the net export volume of steel is 1,078.00 million tons, an increase of 130.00 million tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real - estate climate index is 91.45, a decrease of 0.44; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment is - 3.80%, a decrease of 1.20 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real - estate development investment is - 17.20%, a decrease of 1.30 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment is - 2.20%, a decrease of 1.10 percentage points. The cumulative value of housing construction area is 659,890 million square meters, a decrease of 3,824 million square meters; the cumulative value of new housing construction area is 58,770 million square meters, a decrease of 5,313 million square meters; the unsold area of commercial housing is 40,236.00 million square meters, a decrease of 875.00 million square meters [2] 3.6 Industry News - Former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh was nominated as the next Fed Chairman by US President Trump, which triggered hawkish expectations, and international precious - metal prices tumbled last Friday. The scale of the price - locking policy for winter storage of construction steel in Wuhan has decreased. On Monday, the RB2605 contract decreased with increasing positions. China's official manufacturing PMI in January was 49.3%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points month - on - month [2]