瑞达期货热轧卷板产业链日报-20260202

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - On Monday, the HC2605 contract decreased with a reduction in positions. The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair by President Trump led to a stronger US dollar index, putting pressure on commodities. Technically, the 1-hour MACD indicator of the HC2605 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are adjusting downward with an enlarged green bar. The weekly output of hot-rolled coils increased, with a capacity utilization rate of 78.99% and a production of 309.21 tons. Terminal demand improved while inventory continued to decline. Overall, the downstream demand for hot-rolled coils is resilient, but with the nomination of Kevin Warsh, short-term trading is recommended with attention to risk control [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the HC main contract is 3,261 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan; the position volume is 1,498,793 lots, down 30,859 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the HC contract is -31,176 lots, up 971 lots; the HC5 - 10 contract spread is -15 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan; the HC warehouse receipt at the SHFE is 204,847 tons, up 9,124 tons; the HC2605 - RB2605 contract spread is 163 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan [2] Spot Market - The price of 4.75 hot-rolled coils in Hangzhou is 3,290 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Guangzhou is 3,260 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; in Wuhan is 3,310 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Tianjin is 3,160 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The basis of the HC main contract is 29 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan; the spread between hot-rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou is 20 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB iron ore fines at Qingdao Port is 787 yuan/wet ton, down 7 yuan; the price of Hebei quasi-primary metallurgical coke is 1,490 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan is 2,170 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Hebei Q235 billet is 2,920 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports is 170.1852 million tons, up 2.5567 million tons; the inventory of coke at sample coking plants is 441,400 tons, up 22,000 tons; the inventory of coke at sample steel mills is 6.784 million tons, up 164,100 tons; the inventory of Hebei billets is 1.5875 million tons, up 25,500 tons [2] Industry Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 79.02%, up 0.36 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 85.45%, down 0.08 percentage points. The weekly output of hot-rolled coils at sample steel mills is 3.0921 million tons, up 38,000 tons; the capacity utilization rate of hot-rolled coils at sample steel mills is 78.99%, up 0.97 percentage points. The inventory of hot-rolled coils at sample steel mills is 772,500 tons, up 6,100 tons; the social inventory of hot-rolled coils in 33 cities is 2.7833 million tons, down 28,100 tons. The monthly output of domestic crude steel is 6.818 million tons, down 169,000 tons; the monthly net export volume of steel is 1.078 million tons, up 130,000 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of automobiles is 3.296 million vehicles, down 235,600 vehicles; the monthly sales volume of automobiles is 3.2722 million vehicles, down 156,800 vehicles. The monthly output of air conditioners is 21.6289 million units, up 6.6029 million units; the monthly output of household refrigerators is 10.0115 million units, up 569,500 units; the monthly output of household washing machines is 11.975 million units, down 38,000 units [2] Industry News - President Trump officially nominated former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair, which triggered hawkish expectations. China's official manufacturing PMI in January was 49.3%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.8 percentage points. The National Bureau of Statistics pointed out that in January, some manufacturing industries entered the traditional off-season, and due to insufficient effective market demand, the manufacturing prosperity level declined [2]