瑞达期货沪镍产业日报-20260202

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - It is expected that Shanghai nickel will experience a short - term weak adjustment, and attention should be paid to the support level at 126,000 [2][3] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 129,650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10,350 yuan; the 03 - 04 month contract spread of Shanghai nickel is 250 yuan/ton, an increase of 650 yuan [2] - The LME 3 - month nickel price is 1,7555 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 931 US dollars; the position volume of the main contract of Shanghai nickel is 110,945 lots, a decrease of 21,503 lots [2] - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai nickel is - 46,430 lots, an increase of 15,663 lots; the LME nickel inventory is 286,284 tons, a decrease of 186 tons [2] - The inventory of nickel in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 55,396 tons, an increase of 4,602 tons; the LME nickel cancelled warrants total 10,926 tons, a decrease of 432 tons [2] - The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai nickel is 46,574 tons, a decrease of 302 tons [2] Spot Market - The SMM 1 nickel spot price is 140,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5,950 yuan; the average spot price of 1 nickel plate in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 140,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6,050 yuan [2] - The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 210 US dollars/ton, with no change; the bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 210 US dollars/ton, with no change [2] - The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 33,750 yuan/ton, with no change; the basis of the NI main contract is 10,550 yuan/ton, an increase of 4,400 yuan [2] - The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium is - 221.09 US dollars/ton, an increase of 0.43 US dollars [2] Upstream Situation - The import volume of nickel ore is 199.28 million tons, a decrease of 134.67 million tons; the total port inventory of nickel ore is 1,172.34 million tons, a decrease of 56.28 million tons [2] - The average import unit price of nickel ore is 75.53 US dollars/ton, an increase of 3.36 US dollars; the tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 US dollars/wet ton, with no change [2] Industry Situation - The electrolytic nickel output is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total nickel - iron output is 21,400 metal tons, a decrease of 700 metal tons [2] - The import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 23,861.23 tons, an increase of 11,020.74 tons; the import volume of nickel - iron is 99.61 million tons, an increase of 10.07 million tons [2] Downstream Situation - The output of 300 - series stainless steel is 174.72 million tons, a decrease of 1.45 million tons; the total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 54.9 million tons, an increase of 0.97 million tons [2] Industry News - In January, some manufacturing industries entered the traditional off - season, and the effective market demand was still insufficient. The manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, and the prosperity level decreased compared with the previous month, but production continued to expand. The non - manufacturing business activity index was 49.4%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, and the overall prosperity level of the non - manufacturing industry declined [2] - The US Senate passed a 1.2 - trillion - dollar government spending bill, but a short - term government shutdown is inevitable. House Speaker Johnson said he is "confident" that the government will resume operation before Tuesday [2] - Trump said that Powell did not promise him an interest rate cut, but he "certainly wants to cut interest rates" [2] Viewpoint Summary - The import volume of nickel ore shows a downward trend. Indonesia plans to significantly cut the RKAB quota to 250 - 260 million tons next year, and the domestic trade base price in Indonesia is expected to rise significantly, which is the main reason for the concern about the tightening of raw material supply [2] - On the smelting side, the nickel - iron output in Indonesia remains at a high level, and the quantity flowing back to China is expected to increase. The domestic refined nickel production capacity is relatively large. With the recent rebound of nickel prices, there is a profit margin in production, and it is expected that the refined nickel output will rise again [2] - On the demand side, the profit of stainless steel plants has improved, and the production volume is expected to be at a high level. The production and sales of new energy vehicles continue to climb, and ternary batteries contribute a small incremental demand [2] - The growth of nickel inventory in China has accelerated. The market mainly purchases on dips, and the spot premium has declined. The LME inventory overseas continues to increase, and the spot premium has been adjusted downward [2] - Technically, the position volume has decreased and the price has fallen, and the bullish sentiment has cooled down [2]