瑞达期货玉米系产业日报-20260202

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views Corn - The U.S. corn supply - demand pattern is relatively loose, constraining international corn prices, and there is still potential import pressure in the international market [2]. - Near the Spring Festival, the grain - holding entities' selling mentality has loosened, increasing the corn market supply. After the previous policy - grain auctions, enterprise inventories have risen above the safety line, and most grain - using enterprises' pre - festival stockpiling is basically over. The market trading enthusiasm has declined, and deep - processing enterprises' purchase prices have slightly decreased [2]. - The futures market is supported by strong spot prices, maintaining a relatively strong oscillation, but the upside pressure is still large, and the short - term high has declined [2]. Corn Starch - Near the Spring Festival, downstream demand is good,提货 is active, and the overall inventory has decreased. However, the overall inventory level is still relatively high [3]. - The starch futures market has maintained an oscillation recently, and it is advisable to wait and see in the short term [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Corn futures closing price (active contract) is 2261 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; corn starch futures closing price (active contract) is 2513 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan [2]. - Corn monthly spread (5 - 9) is - 25 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; corn starch monthly spread (3 - 5) is - 59 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan [2]. - Corn futures trading volume (active contract) is 760192 lots, down 114507 lots; corn starch futures trading volume (active contract) is 151286 lots, down 6295 lots [2]. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of corn is - 132837 lots, up 54494 lots; that of corn starch is - 23889 lots, up 3630 lots [2]. - Corn registered warehouse receipts are 54881 lots, up 2836 lots; corn starch registered warehouse receipts are 11611 lots, unchanged [2]. - The CS - C spread of the main contract is 307 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [2]. Outer Market - CBOT corn futures closing price (active contract) is 428.25 cents/bushel, down 2.75 cents; CBOT corn total trading volume (weekly) is 1667786 contracts, up 54400 contracts [2]. - CBOT corn non - commercial net long position (weekly) is - 51704 contracts, down 18281 contracts [2]. Spot Market - The average spot price of corn is 2373.43 yuan/ton, down 2.84 yuan; the ex - factory price of corn starch in Changchun is 2610 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The FOB price of corn at Jinzhou Port is 2330 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the ex - factory price of corn starch in Weifang is 2790 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The CIF price of imported corn is 2036.6 yuan/ton, down 34.17 yuan; the ex - factory price of corn starch in Shijiazhuang is 2770 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The international freight of imported corn is 52 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars [2]. - The basis of the main corn contract is 112.43 yuan/ton, up 7.16 yuan; the basis of the main corn starch contract is 97 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan [2]. - The spread between Shandong starch and corn (weekly) is 444 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spread between tapioca starch and corn starch (weekly) is 573 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan [2]. - The spread between corn starch and 30 - powder is - 205 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The predicted annual corn yield in the U.S. is 425.53 million tons, and the sown area is 36.44 million hectares, both unchanged [2]. - The predicted annual corn yield in Brazil is 131 million tons, and the sown area is 22.6 million hectares, both unchanged [2]. - The predicted annual corn yield in Argentina is 53 million tons, and the sown area is 7.5 million hectares, both unchanged [2]. - The predicted annual corn yield in China is 295 million tons, and the sown area is 44.3 million hectares, both unchanged [2]. - The predicted annual corn yield in Ukraine is 29 million tons, down 3 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - The corn inventory at southern ports (weekly) is 50.5 tons, down 19.2 tons; the deep - processing corn inventory (weekly) is 440.5 tons, up 56.7 tons [2]. - The corn inventory at northern ports (weekly) is 180 tons, up 5 tons; the weekly inventory of starch enterprises (weekly) is 102.8 tons, down 4.1 tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of corn is 80 tons, up 24 tons; the monthly export volume of corn starch is 16.74 tons, down 0.2 tons [2]. - The monthly output of feed is 3008.6 tons, up 30.7 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The sample feed corn inventory days (weekly) are 31.93 days, up 0.61 days [2]. - The deep - processing corn consumption (weekly) is 138.54 tons, up 0.39 tons [2]. - The alcohol enterprise operating rate (weekly) is 57.43%, up 0.1%; the starch enterprise operating rate (weekly) is 59.99%, down 0.47% [2]. - The corn starch processing profit in Shandong is - 32 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Hebei, it is 53 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jilin, it is - 91 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of corn is 9.13%, up 0.18%; the 60 - day historical volatility of corn is 9.03%, down 0.13% [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for corn is 10.71%, up 0.85%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for corn is 10.71%, up 0.85% [2]. Industry News - As of January 28, the sown area of Argentina's 2025/26 corn season accounted for 97.2% of the total expected area (7.8 million hectares), up from 93.1% a week ago [2]. - A private Brazilian meteorological agency issued a weather warning that the probability of rainfall in southern Brazil, Argentina, and southern Paraguay will be low next week [2]. Key Points to Watch - Pay attention to Mysteel's weekly corn consumption, starch enterprise operating rate, and inventory on Thursday and Friday [3]