瑞达期货不锈钢产业日报-20260202

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The stainless - steel futures price is expected to adjust weakly, and attention should be paid to the support at 1.32. The overall trading atmosphere will calm down as the Spring Festival approaches, and the national stainless - steel social inventory will enter a seasonal accumulation period. The raw material supply of ferronickel will face contraction pressure, the production profit of stainless - steel plants has improved but cost support has shifted upward, the downstream demand is turning to the off - season, and the export demand shows strong resilience [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless - steel futures main contract is 13,420 yuan/ton, a decrease of 720 yuan; the 03 - 04 contract spread is - 95 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 7,873 lots, an increase of 4,556 lots; the main contract position is 83,445 lots, a decrease of 15,566 lots. The warehouse receipt quantity is 43,818 tons, an increase of 239 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 304/2B rolled cut - edge in Wuxi is 14,850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan; the market price of scrap stainless - steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,750 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of stainless - steel is 430 yuan/ton, an increase of 445 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel output is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly ferronickel output is 21,400 metal tons, a decrease of 700 metal tons. The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 23,861.23 tons, an increase of 11,020.74 tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel is 996,100 tons, an increase of 100,700 tons. The SMM1 nickel spot price is 140,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5,950 yuan; the average price of ferronickel (7 - 10%) nationwide is 1,070 yuan/nickel point, unchanged. The monthly Chinese chromite output is 757,800 tons, a decrease of 26,900 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless - steel is 1.7472 million tons, a decrease of 14,500 tons; the weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless - steel is 549,000 tons, an increase of 9,700 tons. The monthly stainless - steel export volume is 458,500 tons, a decrease of 29,500 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 587.6996 million square meters, an increase of 53.1326 million square meters. The monthly output of excavators is 37,300 units, an increase of 3,700 units; the monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 32,100 units, an increase of 9,500 units; the monthly output of small tractors is 10,000 units, an increase of 1,000 units [2]. 3.6 Industry News - In January, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, and the non - manufacturing business activity index was 49.4%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month. The U.S. Senate passed a $1.2 trillion government spending bill, but a short - term shutdown is inevitable. In the raw material end, the raw material inventory of domestic ferronickel plants is tightening, and the RKAB plan in Indonesia will significantly cut the quota next year, which will bring production reduction pressure to ferronickel production [2].