Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2026-02-02 09:21Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View - The domestic market currently has over 720,000 tons of inspected cotton, increasing supply pressure. Imported cotton is mainly Brazilian cotton, with trading volume slowing down as the Spring Festival approaches and some spinning mills going on holiday. Considering the approaching Spring Festival, it is advisable to take a short - term wait - and - see approach [2] 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closing price: 14,575 yuan/ton, down 95 yuan; cotton futures top 20 net positions: - 117,261 lots, up 19,409 lots; main contract open interest for cotton: 719,506 lots, down 33,772 lots; cotton warehouse receipt quantity: 10,325 lots, up 36 lots; China's imported cotton price index (1% tariff): 16,070 yuan/ton, down 113 yuan - Cotton yarn main contract closing price: 20,405 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan; cotton yarn futures top 20 net positions: - 1,402 lots, up 391 lots; main contract open interest for cotton yarn: 4,884 lots, down 1,005 lots; cotton yarn warehouse receipt quantity: 0 lots, unchanged; China's yarn price index (pure cotton carded 32 - count yarn): 21,455 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan [2] Spot Market - Domestic cotton price: 12,377 yuan/ton, down 108 yuan; China's imported cotton price index (sliding duty): 13,595 yuan/ton, down 69 yuan; arrival price of imported cotton yarn (pure cotton carded 32 - count yarn): 21,396 yuan/ton, up 369 yuan; arrival price of imported cotton yarn (pure cotton combed 32 - count yarn): 22,991 yuan/ton, up 397 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - National cotton sowing area: 2,838.3 thousand hectares, up 48.3 thousand hectares; national cotton output: 6.16 million tons, up 0.54 million tons [2] Industry Situation - Cotton - yarn price difference: 5,385 yuan/ton, up 138 yuan; national industrial inventory of cotton: 848,000 tons, down 2,000 tons; cotton import volume: 180,000 tons, up 60,000 tons; cotton yarn import volume: 170,000 tons, up 20,000 tons; imported cotton profit: 2,475 yuan/ton, down 44 yuan; national commercial inventory of cotton: 5.7847 million tons, up 1.1011 million tons [2] Downstream Situation - Yarn inventory days: 25.12 days, down 1.21 days; grey fabric inventory days: 33.76 days, up 1.42 days; cloth output: 3.01 billion meters, up 0.2 billion meters; yarn output: 2.132 million tons, up 93,000 tons; export value of clothing and clothing accessories: 134,124,120,000 US dollars, up 18,187,260,000 US dollars; export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products: 125,796,030,000 US dollars, up 3,038,700,000 US dollars [2] Option Market - Implied volatility of at - the - money cotton call options: 13.43%, down 1.25%; implied volatility of at - the - money cotton put options: 13.45%, down 1.2%; 20 - day historical volatility of cotton: 16.84%, up 1.17%; 60 - day historical volatility of cotton: 11.33%, up 0.58% [2] Industry News - As of January 27, 2026, the non - commercial long positions of US cotton were 96,472 lots, an increase of 4,051 lots from the previous week; non - commercial short positions were 135,439 lots, an increase of 17,194 lots from the previous week; net short positions were 38,967 lots, an increase of 13,143 lots from the previous week - ABARES predicts that Australia's cotton output in the 2025/26 season will be 943,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 23%, and the planting area will be 406,000 hectares, a year - on - year decrease of 22%. The overall output is still 9% higher than the average of the past decade [2] 提示关注 - As of January 29, the inventory of imported cotton at major ports increased by 4.25% week - on - week, with a total inventory of 495,400 tons. The inventory in Shandong's Qingdao, Jinan ports and surrounding warehouses was 413,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.93%. The inventory in Zhangjiagang Port and surrounding warehouses in Jiangsu was about 35,000 tons, and the inventory in other ports was about 29,400 tons [2]