橡胶甲醇原油：利空因素主导，能化弱势下行

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views of the Report - On Monday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2605 showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, weak downward movement, and a significant decline. The price center dropped significantly to below 16,000 yuan/ton during the session, closing down 3.73% at 15,980 yuan/ton. The premium of the 5 - 9 month spread widened to 130 yuan/ton. Affected by the overall decline of the energy - chemical sector, it is expected that the rubber price will maintain a weak and volatile trend in the future [6]. - On Monday, the domestic methanol futures contract 2605 showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, weak downward movement, and a significant decline. The highest price reached 2,343 yuan/ton, and the lowest dropped to 2,243 yuan/ton, closing down 3.92% at 2,252 yuan/ton. The discount of the 5 - 9 month spread narrowed to 26 yuan/ton. Supported by the bearish atmosphere, methanol futures may maintain a weak and volatile trend [6]. - On Monday, the domestic crude oil futures contract 2603 showed a trend of weak volume, reducing positions, weak downward movement, and a significant decline. The highest price reached 485.6 yuan/barrel, and the lowest dropped to 449.0 yuan/barrel, closing down 7.02% at 449.0 yuan/barrel. As the geopolitical risks in the Middle East weakened and the hawkish expectations of the Federal Reserve increased, the crude oil premium significantly retracted, and the oil price started a short - term correction [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of January 25, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 584,500 tons, a decrease of 400 tons or 0.07% from the previous period. The bonded area inventory was 94,500 tons, a decrease of 5.03%; the general trade inventory was 490,000 tons, an increase of 0.95%. The inbound rate of the bonded warehouse of the Qingdao natural rubber sample decreased by 6.73 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 2.65 percentage points; the inbound rate of the general trade warehouse increased by 0.06 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.41 percentage points [8]. - As of January 30, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 74.32%, a month - on - month increase of 0.48 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 59.86 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.47%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.06 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 50.96 percentage points. During the period, some semi - steel tire sample enterprises were supported by foreign trade orders, and the device production schedule increased slightly, supporting the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises; the shipment of all - steel tires was mediocre, and some enterprises still had production control, dragging down the capacity utilization rate to decline slightly [8]. - In 2025, the cumulative production and sales of automobiles reached 34.531 million and 34.4 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 10.4% and 9.4%. The production and sales volume reached a new high, and the scale of production and sales has remained above 30 million for three consecutive years, ranking first in the world for 17 consecutive years. Among them, the cumulative production and sales of passenger cars reached 30.27 million and 30.103 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 10.2% and 9.2%. The cumulative production and sales of Chinese commercial vehicles reached 4.261 million and 4.296 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12% and 10.9%. The production and sales returned to more than 4 million. In 2025, the annual automobile exports exceeded 7 million, reaching 7.098 million, a year - on - year increase of 21.1% [9]. - In December 2025, about 95,000 heavy - duty trucks were sold in the Chinese market, a month - on - month decrease of about 16% compared with November 2025 and an increase of about 13% compared with 84,200 in the same period last year. In total, in 2025, the total sales volume of the Chinese heavy - duty truck market reached a new high in the past four years, 1.137 million, a year - on - year increase of about 26% [9]. Methanol - As of the week of January 30, 2026, the average domestic methanol operating rate remained at 87.03%, a week - on - week increase of 1.35%, a month - on - month increase of 0.45%, and a significant increase of 10.22% compared with the same period last year. The average weekly methanol production in China reached 2.0378 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 28,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13,300 tons, and a significant increase of 112,100 tons compared with 1.9257 million tons in the same period last year [10]. - As of the week of January 30, 2026, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate remained at 29.98%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.5%. Meanwhile, the dimethyl ether operating rate remained at 7.24%, a week - on - week increase of 1.45%. The acetic acid operating rate remained at 83.37%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.33%. The MTBE operating rate remained at 58.15%, a week - on - week increase of 0.01%. As of the week of January 30, 2026, the average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 76.53%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.47 percentage points and a month - on - month decrease of 4.79%. As of January 30, 2026, the futures market profit of domestic methanol to olefins was - 136 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 102 yuan/ton and a month - on - month increase of 200 yuan/ton [10]. - As of the week of January 30, 2026, the port methanol inventory in East and South China remained at 993,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 26,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 174,800 tons, and a significant increase of 229,500 tons compared with the same period last year. As of the week of January 29, 2026, the total inland methanol inventory in China reached 454,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 15,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 50,100 tons, and a significant decrease of 119,200 tons compared with 573,400 tons in the same period last year [11]. Crude Oil - As of the week of January 23, 2026, the number of active oil rigs in the United States was 409, a week - on - week decrease of 1 and a decrease of 63 compared with the same period last year. As of the week of January 23, 2026, the daily average crude oil production in the United States was 13.696 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 36,000 barrels per day and a significant year - on - year increase of 456,000 barrels per day, at a historical high [11]. - As of the week of January 23, 2026, the commercial crude oil inventory in the United States (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 423.8 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 2.295 million barrels and a significant increase of 8.628 million barrels compared with the same period last year. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, reached 24.785 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 278,000 barrels; the strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory reached 415 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 515,000 barrels. The refinery operating rate in the United States remained at 90.9%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.4 percentage points, a month - on - month decrease of 3.8 percentage points, and a year - on - year increase of 7.4 percentage points [12]. - As of January 27, 2026, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 96,982 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 18,190 contracts and a significant increase of 38,211 contracts or 65.02% compared with the December average of 58,771 contracts. On the other hand, as of January 27, 2026, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 217,962 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 12,191 contracts and a significant increase of 112,503 contracts or 106.68% compared with the December average of 105,459 contracts [12]. 2. Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 15,900 yuan/ton | - 350 yuan/ton | 15,980 yuan/ton | - 380 yuan/ton | - 80 yuan/ton | + 30 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,255 yuan/ton | - 27 yuan/ton | 2,252 yuan/ton | - 68 yuan/ton | + 3 yuan/ton | - 41 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 453.0 yuan/barrel | - 0.1 yuan/barrel | 449.0 yuan/barrel | - 21.8 yuan/barrel | + 4.0 yuan/barrel | + 21.9 yuan/barrel | [14] 3. Related Charts - Rubber: The report provides charts on rubber basis, 5 - 9 month spread, SHFE rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, all - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [15][17][19] - Methanol: The report provides charts on methanol basis, 5 - 9 month spread, domestic port inventory, inland social inventory, methanol to olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [27][29][31] - Crude Oil: The report provides charts on crude oil basis, SHFE crude oil futures inventory, US crude oil commercial inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change [39][40][42]