恐慌情绪蔓延，铜价弱势运行

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The panic sentiment in the market is spreading, causing a sharp decline in the capital market. The copper price is running weakly, and the risk in the later market has increased significantly. The international situation provides some support for the copper price, but there is strong pressure above the copper price due to factors such as policy uncertainty and AI demand uncertainty [3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog Market Situation - The US federal government partially shut down, and Trump nominated Walsh as the successor to the Fed chair. The market is worried about his hawkish stance, leading to a sharp rise in the US dollar. Panic sentiment continued, and the capital market tumbled across the board. A - shares, the Hang Seng Index, and Asian stocks all fell. The non - ferrous metals market also declined, with copper, aluminum, tin, and nickel hitting the daily limit down [3]. Copper Market Data - Today, the closing price of Shanghai copper was 98,580, and the spot price was 101,150. Shanghai copper hit the daily limit down, and the spot was at a premium of 2,570 points over the futures. The spot basis was at a discount of - 130 points, and spot trading improved after the sharp decline. The LME spot discount widened to - 90 US dollars, indicating insufficient external spot demand. This week, the US copper inventory continued to rise to a new high, the LME copper inventory increased, and the Shanghai copper inventory rose significantly, showing poor spot demand. The RMB exchange rate dropped significantly this week, and the Yangshan copper premium rose sharply to 39.5 US dollars. After the sharp decline, the domestic spot demand improved. The ratio of LME copper to Shanghai copper dropped to 7.71, and the premium of international copper over Shanghai copper dropped significantly to 125 points. The external price ratio was slightly higher than the domestic one, and the market sentiment was weak [4][5]. - The trading volume of Shanghai copper was high, but the open interest declined significantly, and the market sentiment was panicked. Domestically, spot demand improved slightly, while LME copper spot demand was poor, but US copper buying continued. The external price ratio was stronger than the domestic one. Recently, the US copper inventory has been rising continuously, but the US copper has become at a discount to LME copper. The enthusiasm of buyers has dropped significantly [4].