金货期业弘：市场极度恐慌，铝价走势偏弱

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The aluminum market is currently in a state of extreme panic, with weak aluminum price trends. After a sharp short - term decline in aluminum prices, the weak trend may continue. The market should pay attention to market sentiment and spot demand. If copper prices continue to fall, it may drive aluminum prices to remain weak [4][5]. 3. Summary According to Related Data Market Panic and Price Movements - The U.S. federal government partial shutdown and Trump's nomination of Walsh as the successor to the Federal Reserve Chairman, along with concerns about his hawkish stance, led to a sharp rise in the dollar. Panic spread in the market, causing a full - scale decline in capital markets. A - shares, the Hang Seng Index, and Asian stock markets all fell, with the South Korean stock market triggering a trading halt. Non - ferrous metals, including copper, aluminum, tin, and nickel, all hit the daily limit down, with LME aluminum and domestic spot aluminum also dropping significantly [4]. Aluminum Price and Inventory - Today, the closing price of SHFE aluminum was 23,035, and the spot price was 23,700, with a spot premium of 665 points over the futures. This week, SHFE aluminum rose first and then fell, and the spot discount widened to - 220 yuan. After the sharp decline, spot trading improved. Domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventories increased significantly, alumina inventories increased slightly, and SHFE aluminum inventories increased significantly. In the off - season, spot demand at the high level was poor. LME inventories increased slightly, and the LME spot market turned to a discount of - 27 dollars, indicating poor overseas spot demand [4]. Exchange Rate and Price Ratio - This week, the RMB exchange rate dropped significantly, and the SHFE - LME aluminum price ratio rose to 7.84, with the domestic and overseas markets showing similar trends [4]. Technical Analysis - Today, U.S. natural gas prices plunged, U.S. crude oil prices fell, and LME aluminum fell, trading around 3,020 dollars. SHFE aluminum hit the daily limit down, closing at 23,035, and its technical form weakened. The trading volume was high while the open interest of SHFE aluminum decreased significantly, and market sentiment was panicked [5].