玉米淀粉日报-20260202

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to the recent drought in Argentina, the supply pressure has weakened. It is expected that US corn will oscillate strongly at the bottom. The supply of corn in North China has increased, and the spot price of corn is stable. The price of corn in Northeast China has declined, and the spot price is still weak in the short term. The purchase price at the northern port has dropped today. The price of wheat in North China is strong, and the price gap between Northeast corn and North China corn has widened. Recently, the market has been trading on the increased grain sales in North China before the Spring Festival. There is still selling pressure on Northeast corn later. The rebound space of the corn spot price is limited. There is still room for the 03 corn contract to decline, but the decline space of the 07 corn contract is limited. The 03 starch contract is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [4][7][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Data - Futures Market: The prices of various futures contracts of corn and corn starch, including C2601, C2605, C2509, CS2601, CS2605, and CS2509, have declined. The trading volume of most contracts has increased, and the positions of some contracts have changed. For example, the trading volume of C2605 has increased by 33.44%, and the position has decreased by 2.13% [2]. - Spot and Basis: The spot prices of corn in different regions have changed, with some prices falling and some rising. The basis of corn and starch in different regions has also been reported. The spot prices of starch in different regions have also changed, with some prices remaining unchanged and some rising [2]. - Price Spreads: The price spreads of corn and starch in different periods and across varieties have changed. For example, the price spread of C01 - C05 is -11, with a change of 9; the price spread of CS01 - CS05 is -8, with a change of -5 [2]. 3.2 Market Analysis - Corn: The drought in Argentina has led to a rebound in the bottom of US corn, but it is still oscillating at the bottom due to global supply pressure. The import profit of foreign corn has increased. The spot price of corn in the northern port has declined, and the price in the Northeast has fallen back on the weekend. The supply in North China is relatively small, and the spot price is strong. The price gap between North China wheat and corn is still large, and corn is still cost - effective. The domestic breeding demand is stable, and the inventory of downstream feed enterprises has increased. The supply of corn in the Northeast has increased recently, and the price has dropped. The port inventory is low, and the purchase price at the northern port has declined today. The 03 contract is oscillating and falling back, and the spot basis is strengthening. The market is currently concerned about the seasonal selling pressure of Northeast corn before the Spring Festival and the inventory building of downstream enterprises [4][7]. - Starch: The number of vehicles arriving at deep - processing plants in Shandong has increased, and the spot price of corn in Shandong is stable. The spot price of starch in Northeast China is stable. The inventory of corn starch has decreased this week. The current starch price mainly depends on the corn price and downstream stocking. The by - product price is still strong, much higher than last year. The spot price gap between corn and starch is at a low level. The corn in North China is stable in the short term, and the Northeast corn is stable. Due to the end of pre - Spring Festival stocking, enterprises are still in a loss. The 03 starch contract is oscillating weakly following the corn. The price of North China corn has started to rise, and the starch spot price has stabilized in the short term [8]. 3.3 Trading Strategies - Unilateral: The 03 US corn contract is supported at 420 cents per bushel. Long positions should be continued to be established in the 07 and 05 corn contracts [10]. - Arbitrage: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [11]. 3.4 Corn Options - Option Strategy: Adopt a short - term cumulative put option strategy and conduct rolling operations [12]. 3.5 Relevant Attachments - The attachments include charts of the northern port's corn closing price, corn 05 contract basis, corn 5 - 9 price spread, corn starch 5 - 9 price spread, corn starch 05 contract basis, and corn starch 05 contract price spread, which visually show the price changes of relevant products over time [16][17][19][22].